🇫🇷 French 🇫🇷 Presidential Election: Live Updates and News (10 April 2022)

[Taylor]

Ms. Le Pen has softened her tone, if not her virulently anti-immigrant program. She has given the impression of being closer to the day-to-day concerns of French people

I don't know what part of a "we've taken so many people in, it's time reduce the flow and let the waters settle" is "virulent."

Immigration *is* a day-to-day concern of the French people.The vast majority have had enough of it.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I really don't understand why French voters registered abroad (Canada, UK ...) HAVE to vote in-person at their consulate or embassy !

There is only one or two consulates for ten thousands of French voters in the UK or Canada !

Why not allow them a vote by mail ? Some people must drive hours to their consulate.

These lines abroad are unnecessary !

Maybe because the French realize allowing foreign ballot stuffing is bad for elections. You can’t tell whether a ballot you send abroad is being filled out by someone who is even a citizen of your country. If you come to the consulate of the country you have to show ID.

However, they shouldn’t really be allowed to vote at all. Allowing expatriates to vote means someone who has decided to leave the country and live in another one can still impact domestic politics in a location they have specifically chosen not to live in.

Voting privileges should be suspended to expats until they return to reside in the country

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I don't know what part of a "we've taken so many people in, it's time reduce the flow and let the waters settle" is "virulent."

Immigration *is* a day-to-day concern of the French people.The vast majority have had enough of it.

The left can only function by destroying the traditional society that previously existed.

 

[Tender Branson]

5pm turnout update:

65% (-4.4% vs. 2017 during this time)

So, unless there's an evening rush of voters, pollsters were correct that participation is down a bit (but not as low as the record-low in 2002).

 

[Tender Branson]

Once again, a turnout change comparison (5pm) by department (area) vs. 2017:



2017 first round results by area and candidate:

Yellow = Macron
Dark blue = Le Pen
Red = Melenchon
Light Blue = Fillon

 

[Tender Branson]

As you can see from the maps above, no conclusions can be really drawn as to whether a candidate benefits or not from these regional turnout changes:

# turnout is down in many of Le Pens northern, eastern and southern coastal areas, but up in some others.

# the same is true for Melenchon, but looking at the South-West (Gironde/Garonne Valley) where he did well in 2017, turnout is up a lot. But down in Paris, another stronghold of him. The Gironde/Garonne Valley is also a major stronghold of Le Pen.

# Macron areas seem to be universally down in turnout. Except for the South-West and lower center.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Putin’s long shadow hangs over an unpredictable French election

Le Pen’s party is still paying back a loan granted by a bank in Moscow to help finance her 2017 campaign and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have proved a huge embarrassment for her. But her rival on the far-right, Eric Zemmour, another Putinophile, handled the issue far less cleverly; he stood his ground on Putin, misjudged the public mood and stated that refugees from Ukraine were not welcome. As such, he served as an unexpected lightning rod for Le Pen. As he crashed in the polls, she rose.

Hmmmm, very interesting.

 

[Tender Branson]

Still VERY unlikely, but I'd rate a stunning Macron shut-out today (by placing 3rd) at around a 40% likelihood.

If a quarter of his voters stay home (and this might happen based on those maps), and Le Pen performs as expected by pollsters and Melenchon overperforms, it might happen.

 

[Tender Branson]

Putin’s long shadow hangs over an unpredictable French election


Hmmmm, very interesting.

This will be more an issue in the runoff in 2 weeks, to define Le Pen and tie her to Putin.

 

[Tender Branson]

There are rumours and leaks already (from Belgian and Swiss news outlets) that say leftist Melenchon did improve a lot in overseas territories and LePen did well too.

Others refer to an "exit poll" conducted during the day which have both Macron & Le Pen at 24% and Melenchon further behind at 19%.

All these rumours must be taken with a truckload of salt and publication is banned in France, because it could influence voters who still wanna vote.

At best, it shows that Macron & Le Pen still appear favoured to be in the runoff, while Melenchon does better than the polls show, but ultimately fails barely to advance to the runoff. Similar to Bernie Sanders failing to beat Hillary in 2016.

 

[Centrist]

 

[Tender Branson]

Polls have now closed in smaller towns and midsized cities.

Voting in big cities continues for another hour.

 

[Centrist]

The absenteeism rate in the first round of the presidential election is estimated at 26.5% according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria polls for France 24. In 2017, it was 22.2%.

The country's capital, Paris, had a turnout of 52% at 5 pm, one of the lowest in the country.

 

[Tender Branson]

The absenteeism rate in the first round of the presidential election is estimated at 26.5% according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria polls for France 24. In 2017, it was 22.2%.

The country's capital, Paris, had a turnout of 52% at 5 pm, one of the lowest in the country.

Despite the 2nd-lowest turnout ever, 73.5% would still not be bad.

To put it into context, the US had 67% turnout in 2020 (which was a 100+ year record there), while Austria had 80% turnout in 2017 and 76% in 2019.

 

[multivita-man]

That Macron and Lepen are in a tight primary contest isn't necessarily that unexpected or alarming, but I'm worried about the 2nd tier candidate results which show a pretty fine split between the right and left wings of France's political spectrum, with only a slight edge toward France's left. That's assuming the exit polls are accurate, which they may well not be.

I don't know to what degree the French people are really moved by the plight of the Ukrainians, but I seem to recall increasingly 'meh' attitudes in French polling when it came to NATO commitments in general. Perhaps Russia's invasion changes things, but my sense is that there's growing anti-immigrant, anti-global sentiment that's creeping into the French mainstream. Throughout French history there have been periods of nasty polarization (the Dreyfus Affair comes to mind). Interesting times we live in.

 

[Tender Branson]

The polls are now closed in France.

According to the France 5 TV exit poll, Macron beats Le Pen by a 5% margin, or 28% to 23% - with leftist Melenchon at 20%.

This exit poll still carries a 2% margin of error, so Macron could only win by 3%, or by 7% too.

Anyway, these results would be pretty much what the pre-election polls have shown ...

 

[Centrist]

The polls are now closed in France.

According to the France 5 TV exit poll, Macron beats Le Pen by a 5% margin, or 28% to 23% - with leftist Melenchon at 20%.

This exit poll still carries a 2% margin of error, so Macron could only win by 3%, or by 7% too.

Anyway, these results would be pretty much what the pre-election polls have shown ...

Macron - Le Pen 1 - 0

second half to begin.

 

[Tender Branson]

The polls are now closed in France.

According to the France 5 TV exit poll, Macron beats Le Pen by a 5% margin, or 28% to 23% - with leftist Melenchon at 20%.

This exit poll still carries a 2% margin of error, so Macron could only win by 3%, or by 7% too.

Anyway, these results would be pretty much what the pre-election polls have shown ...

Full exit poll:

 

[Centrist]

Macron - Le Pen 1 - 0

second half to begin.

 

[Tender Branson]

First results from overseas being reported:

Leftist Melenchon wins the 5 American overseas departments by huge margins with over 40 and 50%.

A big improvement since 2017.

Macron wins the 3 overseas departments in the Pacific by big margins (they went for Conservative Fillon in 2017), so big improvement for Macron there.

The 2 overseas departments in Africa near Madagascar have not reported yet.

 

[Tender Branson]

In the last half hour, already 4 of the 10 eliminated candidates have endorsed Macron in the runoff against Le Pen:

# Jadot (Greens)
# Roussel (Left)
# Hidalgo (PS, left)
# Pecresse (Republican, right)

 

[Tender Branson]

Melenchon, a far leftist who placed 3rd with 20% today, just said:

"Don't give a single vote to Le Pen in the runoff !"

 

[PeteEU]

The polls are now closed in France.

According to the France 5 TV exit poll, Macron beats Le Pen by a 5% margin, or 28% to 23% - with leftist Melenchon at 20%.

This exit poll still carries a 2% margin of error, so Macron could only win by 3%, or by 7% too.

Anyway, these results would be pretty much what the pre-election polls have shown ...

Not an exit poll as they are illegal in France. It is a result based on 300 constituencies results that historical have reflected the overall result within a few points. Yes it is a tad strange.

 

[PeteEU]

Unless something strange happens, the Macron will win big in the real election...just like anyone else who ran against Le Pen. She will get around 30% to 35% at the most....like last time.

The French left won't vote for a Nazi.

 

[Tender Branson]

The ACTUAL COUNT in MAINLAND FRANCE is showing a different picture so far than the exit poll:

In many regions who are partially counted, Le Pen performs 4-8% better than in 2017.

But Macron also.

It will take a while to add everything together, because these are rural areas and cities+suburbs vote different and report later.