‘We’ve got to stop fooling ourselves’: Enthusiasm gap keeps getting worse for Dems

[Perotista]

‘We’ve got to stop fooling ourselves’: Enthusiasm gap keeps getting worse for Dems

The last time the voter enthusiasm deficit was this wide, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.

www.politico.com

--

I do indeed believe the Dems will lose the house, and I'm going to cite a component that I believe is a prime aspect.

My point is quite simple: There is no Boogeyman to motivate the Dems!

Today we seem to vote against the other guys, rather than vote for our guys. It's easy to be unhappy with and criticize those running the place, than it is to actually run the place with your guys.

--

Well, that's my take on it. It's not an all inclusive rationale, but I believe it is a prime component.

Exactly, what I call the anti-vote, those who voted against a candidate, but not for any candidate or party decided the last two presidential election. In 2016 26% of the electorate fell into the anti-vote category. Trump won them 50-39 over Hillary Clinton with 11% voting third party against both major party candidates. Trump wouldn’t have won without winning the anti-vote. In 2020 Biden won the anti-vote over Trump 68-30 over Biden. 24% of those who voted fell into this anti-vote category. Many voted against Trump casting a ballot for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats, a governorship along with 2 state legislatures. They voted against Trump, but not for Biden and not for the Democratic Party’s down ballot candidates.

Your boogieman theory, interesting that in 2018, no Clinton on the ballot the Republicans lost 44 seats. In 2022, Trump won’t be on the ballot either. He wasn’t on the ballot when Youngkin defeated McAuliffe in Virginia last year. Here’s the latest on 2022 house races along with redistricting.

46 states have completed their redistricting leaving 4 states left to draw their new maps. 389 districts are now completed, leaving 46 districts to be redrawn. Out of the 389 newly drawn districts, 39 are competitive, switchable districts, at risk districts. Currently held by 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 30 Mar 2022, 172 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 46 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column and how many fall into the at risk/competitive column. The 4 remaining states are Maryland, New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

Being the Democrats have more than twice the number of at-risk seats than the GOP, the above isn’t good news for them. Then to add more bad news, the Republicans also lead in the generic congressional ballot.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2022 Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2022 Generic Congressional Vote

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Deuce]

LOL Other than Putin who do you think your guys are going to blame? The demented simp in the White House? Nancy? AOC?

"Demented simp" hahaha right wingers just repeat words they hear.

 

[Deuce]

Too funny. You don't see the irony in your two sentences, do you?

Oh, does it make you mad when other people invent arguments you never made? Funny, that.

 

[Mithrae]

I do indeed believe the Dems will lose the house, and I'm going to cite a component that I believe is a prime aspect.

My point is quite simple: There is no Boogeyman to motivate the Dems!

Today we seem to vote against the other guys, rather than vote for our guys. It's easy to be unhappy with and criticize those running the place, than it is to actually run the place with your guys.

How many times do I have to say it: Politics of fear, division and tribalism are pretty much antithetical to core liberal values, but are meat and drink to many conservatives, nationalists and evangelicals. Using right-wing tactics is and always was going to be a long-term losing strategy for a party drawing many of its votes from left-leaning folk. As others have pointed out, that has been one of the main approaches of Democrats since at least 2016 and especially since 2020, and it's just not working; it's just not enough to make left-leaning voters enthusiastic about a center-right party, even if they're sometimes willing to hold their nose and vote for the 'lesser evil.'

I suppose the point is "Here are some progressive/left-leaning ideas and look, they're not that scary!" And then it turns out that even the slightest bit of change from the status quo is still scary to 'ordinary Democrats,' because it's the same kind of mistake as 'ordinary Democrats' are (presumably) making in their way of thinking about political strategy: Trying to be 'moderate' not by advocating sensible ideas and explaining them to people, but by following along just a step or two behind the increasing rightward shifts of the other party. Instead of trying to normalize sensible and genuinely moderate ideas, letting 'normal' become defined as a little less far-right than the Republican party. In fact that's the same sort of thing as the many comments we've seen over the past few years about playing dirty in politics, that supposedly the Democrats are 'weak' for playing fair even knowing the Republicans never will, so instead of standing up for decency and integrity Democrats should start playing dirty too.

In both areas, this kind of 'strategy' misses the fact that things like tribalism/partisanship and politics of insecurity or fear play far more to right-wing strengths than the inclusivity and egalitarianism which tend to animate left-wing politics; the longer those trends of inequality, division, societal and ecological breakdown are allowed to persist, the harder it'll be to ever unwind the ratchet... and more likely it'll simply have to be smashed to pieces in the end.

I keep seeing comments like this about playing hardball, fighting fire with fire etc, and I keep thinking that there's a major problem with that: Division, partisanship, tribalism and the like play completely to the strengths of right-wing attitudes and ideology. Even if they could be used to win a battle (which is hardly a given) it seems likely it would just take America further down the road of fearfulness and insecurity promoted so consistently by right-wing media and manipulated so successfully by Trump. Reaching out to those of differing - sometimes even radically differing - political views may or may not work on a case by case basis, or maybe even ever at the level of Congress, but surely it's the best hope for beginning the return of America to a compassionate and caring society? Or at the least, slowing the decline a little!

Bill Maher is right about Trump's 'slow-moving coup.' Here are 6 reasons to take it seriously

That's not what the polls say. The election is 37 months away. How sad that you are going to spend the next 3 years and one month with your ass in the air begging for Trump to win again.

debatepolitics.com

 

[Chomsky]

I find it weird that it seems there's a lot of focus on this like it would be something new, not saying YOU just saying in general lots of articles and lots of talk (from righties) that its going to be doomsday for the left
the party in charge losing the midterms has been pretty standard my whole life . . . .

now maybe this will be an average loss, maybe it will be above avg since Donnie lost so bad but I really dont see it as something new and so worthy of focus

Anything's possible; Obama, a successful two term President, lost 47 seats! (IIRC)

I DO wish the pendulum didnt swing as much in politics, thats for sure but I dont see this as a concern other than congress will go into a regression (we the people will be heard even less) which is typically always an issue

It's freaking neck-breaking!

 

[Chomsky]

The House Dems and the Biden pukes are trying real hard to create a boogeyman with all that Jan 6 nonsense.

But yeah...I don't think that will work for them, either.

Yes, politics are a component, but a great many of us definitely do not see it as 'nonsense'.

DOJ & the courts will have the last word, and that's fine with me.

 

[Rawley]

Oh, does it make you mad when other people invent arguments you never made? Funny, that.

You funny
'I'm not blaming REpublicans'

'REPUBLICANS WILL BURN DOWN THE CAPITOL'

 

[Chomsky]

The dilemma for them is the real bogeyman is the increase in gas prices, but by identifying that as something that needs to be fixed it hinders their drive towards a green energy model.

Actually, Biden just did both items above, and I started a thread on it:

Biden announces historic oil reserve release, along with other steps, to reduce gas prices

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/30/politics/strategic-petroleum-reserve-release-oil-joe-biden/index.html (CNN)President Joe Biden is announcing an unprecedented release of oil from US reserves and taking steps to punish oil companies for not increasing production from unused leases on federal land...

debatepolitics.com

 

[Rawley]

"Demented simp" hahaha right wingers just repeat words they hear.

Sorry I made you look up those words. Look at it as growth experience.

 

[Chomsky]

"Why aren't our voters enthusiastic" wonders party who runs on liberalism and then governs on center-right oligarchic status quo garbage.

That might be a pretty good statement!

 

[Chomsky]

We're not better off today than two years ago because our government hasn't done anything to change that, and it's idiotic to only blame Democrats for this. It's not like Republicans are trying to do anything useful right now.

If anything, they've hindered progress.

 

[BirdinHand]

The last 2 presidential elections have been a wild ride.

2020’s have been next level of “things I couldn’t have imagined”.

The midterms this year will also be a wild ride.

Who knows what 2024 will bring, at this point, flying monkeys could show up and I wouldn’t be surprised.


I'm not sure if it is enthusiasm - or if it is just who is most disgusted at this point. The pendulum has been swinging all over the place for years. Time for things to settle down. That might have been what some "thought' was going to happen under Biden, but it hasn't really played out that way.

 

[Rawley]

That might be a pretty good statement!

How far out on the spectrum do you have to be to consider trillions of dollars in deficit spending on social programs to be "center-right oligarchic status quo garbage?"

 

[Chomsky]

I live for the day the D's and R's implode themselves and vaporize, which will massively decrease the useless partisan battles that set America onto 2 and 4 year opposing-legislation cycles. Parties would be fine of they were citizen-centric instead of self-centered like little rich-kids. Until this happens (eventually it has to), we will keep getting the hacks and mindless lesser-of-two-evils that have been training us to be petty bickering propagandists.

To be honest, as much as I revere the Constitution, there's times I wonder if we'd be better-off with a parliamentarian system?

 

[Chomsky]

I will most likely vote 3rd party as my congressman is a lock, he isn’t a horrible representative and not as embarrassingly others. He has just been there for almost 30 years time for him to go. Same for my state delegate. People sending the same folks back year after year wondering why it doesn’t change it on major area our system is broke

You are 100% right, here.

But, unfortunately, Duverger's . . .

Duverger's law - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Chomsky]

Time to set term limits by we the voters. Everybody's rep cannot be fantastic. Term limits by the voters at the ballot box. STOP voting for the big spenders ....... they are in debt to the sources that don't give a damn about 99% of the people.

How about the nation being prosecuting voting suppression groups STAT!

We are facing growing societal problems in health care, education, labor, energy and the environment. These are problems for which active citizens have solutions, yet their voices are not carrying across the democracy gap.

Citizen groups and individual thinkers have generated a tremendous capital of ideas, information, and solutions to the point of surplus, while OUR government has been drawn away from us by a corporate government. Our political leadership has been hijacked.

Citizen advocates have no other choice but to close the democracy gap by direct political means. Only effective national political leadership will restore the responsiveness of government to its citizenry. Truly progressive political movements do not just produce good results; they enable a flowering of progressive citizen movements to advance the quality of our neighborhoods and communities outside of politics.

Current politics, in which incumbents and candidates daily extol their own inflated virtues, paint complex issues with trivial brush strokes, and propose plans quickly generated by campaign consultants.

The systemic political decay that has weakened our democracy kinda makes one feel like vomiting.

WE can no longer watch people dedicate themselves to improving their country while their government leaders turn their backs, or worse, actively block fair treatment for citizens. It is necessary to launch a sustained effort to wrest control of our democracy from the corporate government and restore it to the political government under the control of citizens.

This campaign will challenge all Americans who are concerned with systemic imbalances of power and the undermining of our democracy, whether they consider themselves progressives, liberals, conservatives, or others.

Presidential elections should be a time for deep discussions among the citizenry regarding the down-to-earth problems and injustices that are not addressed because of the gross power mismatch between the narrow vested interests and the public or common good.

The unconstrained behavior of big business is subordinating our democracy to the control of a corporate plutocracy that knows few self-imposed limits to the spread of its power to all sectors of our society.

Moving on all fronts to advance narrow profit motives at the expense of civic values, large corporate lobbies and their law firms have produced a commanding multi-faceted and powerful juggernaut:

They flood public elections with cash, and they use their media conglomerates to exclude, divert, or propagandize.

They brandish their willingness to close factories here and open them abroad if workers do not bend to their demands.

By their control in Congress, they keep the federal cops off the corporate crime, fraud, and abuse beats,

They imperiously demand and get a wide array of privileges and immunities: tax escapes, enormous corporate welfare subsidies, federal giveaways, and bailouts. They weaken the common law of torts in order to avoid their responsibility for injurious wrongdoing to innocent children, women and men.

Food for thought:

The Ralph Nader Reader

archive.nytimes.com

I like the bolded.

 

[Chillfolks]

The last 2 presidential elections have been a wild ride.

2020’s have been next level of “things I couldn’t have imagined”.

The midterms this year will also be a wild ride.

Who knows what 2024 will bring, at this point, flying monkeys could show up and I wouldn’t be surprised.


I'm not sure if it is enthusiasm - or if it is just who is most disgusted at this point. The pendulum has been swinging all over the place for years. Time for things to settle down. That might have been what some "thought' was going to happen under Biden, but it hasn't really played out that way.

I have alien invasion on my Bingo card

 

[Luckyone]

‘We’ve got to stop fooling ourselves’: Enthusiasm gap keeps getting worse for Dems

The last time the voter enthusiasm deficit was this wide, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.

www.politico.com

--

I do indeed believe the Dems will lose the house, and I'm going to cite a component that I believe is a prime aspect.

My point is quite simple: There is no Boogeyman to motivate the Dems!

Today we seem to vote against the other guys, rather than vote for our guys. It's easy to be unhappy with and criticize those running the place, than it is to actually run the place with your guys.

--

Well, that's my take on it. It's not an all inclusive rationale, but I believe it is a prime component.

I am no expert on this but given that I never voted in my entire life until 2020 (when I felt the need to vote against Trump and against all Republicans across the board) and since I will continue to vote against all Republicans at any time they are up for a vote, I have a feeling you might be wrong in your assessment. Like me, other people who now are strongly against the Republicans, will get up and vote.

 

[Chomsky]

Exactly, what I call the anti-vote, those who voted against a candidate, but not for any candidate or party decided the last two presidential election. In 2016 26% of the electorate fell into the anti-vote category. Trump won them 50-39 over Hillary Clinton with 11% voting third party against both major party candidates. Trump wouldn’t have won without winning the anti-vote. In 2020 Biden won the anti-vote over Trump 68-30 over Biden. 24% of those who voted fell into this anti-vote category. Many voted against Trump casting a ballot for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats, a governorship along with 2 state legislatures. They voted against Trump, but not for Biden and not for the Democratic Party’s down ballot candidates.

Your boogieman theory, interesting that in 2018, no Clinton on the ballot the Republicans lost 44 seats. In 2022, Trump won’t be on the ballot either. He wasn’t on the ballot when Youngkin defeated McAuliffe in Virginia last year. Here’s the latest on 2022 house races along with redistricting.

Bingo!

46 states have completed their redistricting leaving 4 states left to draw their new maps. 389 districts are now completed, leaving 46 districts to be redrawn. Out of the 389 newly drawn districts, 39 are competitive, switchable districts, at risk districts. Currently held by 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 30 Mar 2022, 172 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 46 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column and how many fall into the at risk/competitive column. The 4 remaining states are Maryland, New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

Being the Democrats have more than twice the number of at-risk seats than the GOP, the above isn’t good news for them. Then to add more bad news, the Republicans also lead in the generic congressional ballot.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2022 Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2022 Generic Congressional Vote

www.realclearpolitics.com

I enjoy reading your posts, because it's the data I like, but the work I would never do!

Thanks for this one, and all the others over our tenure here.

 

[BirdinHand]

I have alien invasion on my Bingo card

At this point, I think they're driving PAST the planet with their windows rolled up and their doors locked.

 

[Chomsky]

Oh, does it make you mad when other people invent arguments you never made? Funny, that.

LMAO!

Alright, that was quite a retort!

 

[CaughtInThe]

the dumbest thing that sane people do (once they're regained power from the extremists) is relax, play defense and not brag about their own accomplishments.

hell, TFG was separating families and ignoring a pandemic while comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln.


that ever repeating merry-go-round will never work.

 

[Lloyd Christmas]

Uh. You control the House, the Senate and the White House. Not that you won't try, but hard to lay the blame on the Republicans for any of the mess your guys have created,

50% of Senate is not controlling anything. then you have Sinema and Manchin who are basically republicans. So as usual, you people have no facts other than lies and moronic one liners. Republicans never vote with dems, ever, the GOP won't allow it. only time is if someone is not running again.

 

[ataraxia]

‘We’ve got to stop fooling ourselves’: Enthusiasm gap keeps getting worse for Dems

The last time the voter enthusiasm deficit was this wide, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.

www.politico.com

--

I do indeed believe the Dems will lose the house, and I'm going to cite a component that I believe is a prime aspect.

My point is quite simple: There is no Boogeyman to motivate the Dems!

Today we seem to vote against the other guys, rather than vote for our guys. It's easy to be unhappy with and criticize those running the place, than it is to actually run the place with your guys.

--

Well, that's my take on it. It's not an all inclusive rationale, but I believe it is a prime component.

My only question is: how many more boogeymen do the dems need before they get interested in voting? I mean you have a party whose head is a lying, corrupt, criminal insurrectionist, and whose members blame Jewish space lasers as the cause for the increase in forest fires.

 

[HikerGuy83]

‘We’ve got to stop fooling ourselves’: Enthusiasm gap keeps getting worse for Dems

The last time the voter enthusiasm deficit was this wide, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.

www.politico.com

--

I do indeed believe the Dems will lose the house, and I'm going to cite a component that I believe is a prime aspect.

My point is quite simple: There is no Boogeyman to motivate the Dems!

Today we seem to vote against the other guys, rather than vote for our guys. It's easy to be unhappy with and criticize those running the place, than it is to actually run the place with your guys.

--

Well, that's my take on it. It's not an all inclusive rationale, but I believe it is a prime component.

Not much to vote for on either side.