A "red wave election" in what year? 2022?
Then in your last sentence, are you speaking of this upcoming midterm?
Is this comment indicating you don't think November will be a red wave election? I'd take the other side of that bet. I think 2022 will be a strong election year for the GOP.
Definition of a wave election is when the out of power party gains 30 or more seats in the house and regains control of the House. Looking at the current redistricting figures, I don’t think a gain of 30 plus seats is possible. Well, anything is possible, but not probable as of today. Long time before November.
Here's what I have on redistricting as of today.
REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 15 May 2022
Florida appealed the judge’s ruling throwing out Florida’s new congressional map. The appeal automatically puts a stay on the ruling meaning the DeSantis map is now the official redistricting map until the appeal process comes to an end. This article explains it all.
Florida’s redistricting process has dragged on for months.
www.politico.com
Until the appeal process comes to an end or the stay is revoked, we now have 46 states which has completed redistricting, 4 have yet to draw their maps. The 4 states are Kansas, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 395 districts are now completed, leaving 40 districts to be redrawn. There are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 15 May 2022, 167 Democratic, 186 Republican.
The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 51 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 32. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
Although this differs a bit from 538, it is the average of cook, Rothenberg, EP, RCP etc. Here’s 538’s.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/?cid=rrpromo
I figure both New Hampshire seats will fall into the competitive, at risk column. Then Kansas will add 3 safe seats to the GOP and 1 to the Democrats. Missouri splits 6-2 while New York will add 18 safe seats to the Democrats with 4 to the GOP. That 188 safe democratic seats, 195 GOP seats if my numbers add up. Although the above is an estimate on my part for the remaining 4 states who haven’t completed redistricting. Both New Hampshire seats are held by Democrats, so say 33 Democratic seats at risk vs 11 for the GOP. A whopping 22 seat difference. No way will the democrats lose all 33 and I don’t think the Republicans will win all of their 11. If you split it 50-50 which rarely happens, the Democrats lose 17 of their seats, but gain 5 of the GOP seats for a net gain of 12. Take the generic ballot into consideration, The GOP has a 2.5-point lead, so say 15 or so seat gain. That’s half of the 30 seats needed to be considered a wave election. But enoughj to retake control of the house. I'll address the senate later if you'd like.