‘Democrats Are in Some Serious Trouble’ – New NBC Poll: 75% of Americans Say Country is on Wrong Track Under Joe Biden

[gbg3]

Then you have North Carolina which should be added to the tossups or one could say tilts Republican. But that may depend on who the GOP nominates there. If the republicans go with Budd, NC will probably stay red. But if they go with McCrory, then the D Beasley will probably beat him. Way too early for any firm predictions.

I bet Budd will win the primary tomorrow, with ease.

 

[Perotista]

From where did you get this? I know you keep your own charts and such. Is this from your personal calculations? If not, please provide your source as I'd love to read it.

Yes, by averaging several sites. We went through this before. Cook has 36 D at risk 10 R’s, Rothenberg 26 D’s 12 R’s, ID, 16 D, 28 R, Split Ticket 23 D, 5 R, Sabato 23 D, 8 R. Average 25 D, 12 R. That’s 13 more D’s than R’s. But 4 states aren’t included, Missouri, Kansas, New York, New Hampshire since they haven’t completed their redistricting. 538 list 33 competitive districts, but doesn’t break them down via R and or D. This let’s me know even if the Republicans win all their at risk districts and win all of the Democratic districts, they can gain only around 25 seats since that is the average of the number of seats the Democrats have at risk today. Looking at the at risk districts, my own thoughts on them, I come to the conclusion the Republicans probably will split 9-3 while the democrats under the current conditions split 10-15. That’s a 12 seat gain for the GOP, but with Biden low approval I made it 12-15.

I know, you don’t like my averaging. I look only at competitive seats, tossup’s lean and tilt. Not safe or likely seats. If you don't like them, ignore them. They're only how I see things using a varity of different numbers provided by different pundits. I'm like RCP, I like averaging.

 

[gbg3]

Yes, by averaging several sites. We went through this before. Cook has 36 D at risk 10 R’s, Rothenberg 26 D’s 12 R’s, ID, 16 D, 28 R, Split Ticket 23 D, 5 R, Sabato 23 D, 8 R. Average 25 D, 12 R. That’s 13 more D’s than R’s. But 4 states aren’t included, Missouri, Kansas, New York, New Hampshire since they haven’t completed their redistricting. 538 list 33 competitive districts, but doesn’t break them down via R and or D. This let’s me know even if the Republicans win all their at risk districts and win all of the Democratic districts, they can gain only around 25 seats since that is the average of the number of seats the Democrats have at risk today. Looking at the at risk districts, my own thoughts on them, I come to the conclusion the Republicans probably will split 9-3 while the democrats under the current conditions split 10-15. That’s a 12 seat gain for the GOP, but with Biden low approval I made it 12-15.

I know, you don’t like my averaging. I look only at competitive seats, tossup’s lean and tilt. Not safe or likely seats. If you don't like them, ignore them. They're only how I see things using a varity of different numbers provided by different pundits. I'm like RCP, I like averaging.

I'll be very interested in seeing if you're right and the GOP picks up 12-15 House seats and loses one Senate seat. Honestly, I think that sounds ludicrous but we'll see.
Reading about your personal averaging certainly intrigues me.

I do expect your Kemp vote will work out for you, both now and in November.

 

[Perotista]

I'll be very interested in seeing if you're right and the GOP picks up 12-15 House seats and loses one Senate seat. Honestly, I think that sounds ludicrous but we'll see.
Reading about your personal averaging certainly intrigues me.

I do expect your Kemp vote will work out for you, both now and in November.

I'll be very interested in seeing if you're right and the GOP picks up 12-15 House seats and loses one Senate seat. Honestly, I think that sounds ludicrous but we'll see.
Reading about your personal averaging certainly intrigues me.

I do expect your Kemp vote will work out for you, both now and in November.

Before DP did their software upgrade and basically took the blogs away, I used to do monthly forecasts prior to every election beginning in 2014. Prior to that I was doing them on Politico. But with me I always use the numbers available today, which can change tomorrow. So, my forecast done monthly, changed from month to month. Mostly they were if the election were held today type forecasting, predictions. Since I only have the numbers for today and not tomorrow or in November. They’re not a forecast for November, too many unknowns, ups and downs and who knows what unforeseen even will happen.

So, what I’m saying is if the election were held today, a 12-15 seat pickup along with a senate loss of Pennsylvania. I had a lot of folks follow the monthly forecasts to check the changes. Those were good old days. But progress on the software and site, it is what it is. DP did bring back the blogs, but in a different way. Whereas I had 2-300 views on the old forecasts on the old DP and sometimes conversation ranging up to 30 or more replies some months. The new blog gets ignored. I stopped doing the monthly forecasts.

Georgia’s an open primary state, I voted in the GOP primary yesterday for Kemp. He’s been a very good governor in my mind, I want to keep him. I love RCP and their averaging, but I’ll admit, at times I forget to check that site. I get involved in too many other sites. I looked at Walker vs. Warnock. 2 of the 6 polls were taken last year, I’d throw them out. 2 more in January of this year, gone. I like polls taken within 30 days if possible, but 60 is okay when there are only 2. The Hill has Walker by 4, 3 APR, and WXIA has Warnock by 5, 27 APR. Average, Warnock by 1, but both polls have an MOE of plus or minus 3 points which makes Georgia a pure tossup. That’s where all the pundits and sites have Georgia also, pure tossup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/Georgia.html

Walker has had a ton of personal problems and just moved back into Georgia to run for the senate. I don’t know how that will play out with independents yet. According to WXIA poll, Warnock leads Walker among independents 49-43

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bca047b9-0028-4722-99cf-e8b225416609

With all the folks who moved into Georgia from the Northeast over the last 10-20 years, the party’s strength and base are relative even. Independents will decide this race. They decided the two senate runoffs last Jan 2021. So, I’d list Georgia as lean or tilt Democratic in the senate race.

 

[tres borrachos]

Pure tossup seats in the senate include Democratic held Nevada, Arizona, Georgia with Republican held Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/consensus-2022-senate-forecast

It’s my opinion as of 16 May that Nevada and Arizona are leaning Democratic, Wisconsin leans Republican. That leaves D Georgia and R Pennsylvania. A Survey USA polls had D Warnock over R Walker 50-45. I don’t like putting all my eggs in a single poll. But that would mean Georgia if correct will probably stay in Democratic hands. That leaves Pennsylvania as the R state I think will go Blue. Fetterman is the Lt. Gov of Pennsylvania. He’s already won statewide. He has an organization statewide. That give him a leg up.

Then you have North Carolina which should be added to the tossups or one could say tilts Republican. But that may depend on who the GOP nominates there. If the republicans go with Budd, NC will probably stay red. But if they go with McCrory, then the D Beasley will probably beat him. Way too early for any firm predictions. We need to know the candidates. Today, it’s Pennsylvania that switches from Red to Blue. At least that’s the way I see it today. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wisconsin go blue, Johnson isn’t like much there and Georgia go Red. Whatever happens, there won’t be any huge gain for either party. One, perhaps two seats with either party gaining or losing them. But in my book, Fetterman will be hard to beat in Pennsylvania. I think he’s a winner.

Thanks Pero. I always enjoy reading your predictions.

I agree that Fetterman will win. The GOP candidates are all too nuts to carry the state.

Are you thinking Hassan will hold her seat at this point?

 

[Perotista]

Thanks Pero. I always enjoy reading your predictions.

I agree that Fetterman will win. The GOP candidates are all too nuts to carry the state.

Are you thinking Hassan will hold her seat at this point?

Roger on Hanssan, I think Sununu was the only one who could have beat her. She is in the likely column, which means Hanssan race isn't currently competitive, but could become so. If this was the old DP where I could do my monthly forecasts, she wouldn't be on my watch list today or this month.

 

[tres borrachos]

Roger on Hanssan, I think Sununu was the only one who could have beat her. She is in the likely column, which means Hanssan race isn't currently competitive, but could become so. If this was the old DP where I could do my monthly forecasts, she wouldn't be on my watch list today or this month.

I agree with you. I think her seat is safe, and I also think Sununu was the only one who had a shot to take it. He seems to like being our governor - and I like having him as our governor.

 

[Perotista]

I agree with you. I think her seat is safe, and I also think Sununu was the only one who had a shot to take it. He seems to like being our governor - and I like having him as our governor.

A governor can do so much more, have more authority, can make a big difference in their state. In the senate, it’s basically a yes or no vote. A governor can deviate from the party line and do things against a political party’s wishes that benefit the people of his state. Deviate from the party line in the senate, you’re labeled a pariah or worse. Look at how the Democrats have treated Manchin and Sinema for voting their conscious or the GOP with Romney, Cheney etc.

To put it bluntly, being a governor is all about the people of your state. Being a senator is all about political party loyalty and not about people.

 

[Questerr]

I wonder why such an overwhelming majority disapprove of Jose Biden’s job performance?

Because he’s a shit President. The only reason he’s in office is because the Republicans were stupid enough to run Trump for re-election. The only reason he will win re-election is because the Republicans will be stupid enough to run Trump or DeSantis.

 

[tres borrachos]

A governor can do so much more, have more authority, can make a big difference in their state. In the senate, it’s basically a yes or no vote. A governor can deviate from the party line and do things against a political party’s wishes that benefit the people of his state. Deviate from the party line in the senate, you’re labeled a pariah or worse. Look at how the Democrats have treated Manchin and Sinema for voting their conscious or the GOP with Romney, Cheney etc.

To put it bluntly, being a governor is all about the people of your state. Being a senator is all about political party loyalty and not about people.

Well said. I couldn't agree more.