Pure tossup seats in the senate include Democratic held Nevada, Arizona, Georgia with Republican held Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/consensus-2022-senate-forecast
It’s my opinion as of 16 May that Nevada and Arizona are leaning Democratic, Wisconsin leans Republican. That leaves D Georgia and R Pennsylvania. A Survey USA polls had D Warnock over R Walker 50-45. I don’t like putting all my eggs in a single poll. But that would mean Georgia if correct will probably stay in Democratic hands. That leaves Pennsylvania as the R state I think will go Blue. Fetterman is the Lt. Gov of Pennsylvania. He’s already won statewide. He has an organization statewide. That give him a leg up.
Then you have North Carolina which should be added to the tossups or one could say tilts Republican. But that may depend on who the GOP nominates there. If the republicans go with Budd, NC will probably stay red. But if they go with McCrory, then the D Beasley will probably beat him. Way too early for any firm predictions. We need to know the candidates. Today, it’s Pennsylvania that switches from Red to Blue. At least that’s the way I see it today. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wisconsin go blue, Johnson isn’t like much there and Georgia go Red. Whatever happens, there won’t be any huge gain for either party. One, perhaps two seats with either party gaining or losing them. But in my book, Fetterman will be hard to beat in Pennsylvania. I think he’s a winner.