- Mar 28, 2020
- Reaction score
- Political Leaning
My gosh, I'm just now watching my recording of Meet the Press and seeing of this new NBC poll. 16% saying the country is headed in the right direction. That's a LOW number! Whew!
39% Biden approval in this new poll. He's also very recently had a Monmouth and IBD poll come in at the same 39%.
The poll shows a tie for "who should control congress" 46/46. But Todd went on to point out in 2010, this number was 46 (GOP) and 44(Dem) and the GOP picked up 6 Senate seats and 63 House seats that year.
Definition of a wave election is when the out of power party gains 30 or more seats in the house and regains control of the House. Looking at the current redistricting figures, I don’t think a gain of 30 plus seats is possible. Well, anything is possible, but not probable as of today. Long time before November.
Here's what I have on redistricting as of today.
REDISTRICTING/GERRYMANDERING as of 15 May 2022
Florida appealed the judge’s ruling throwing out Florida’s new congressional map. The appeal automatically puts a stay on the ruling meaning the DeSantis map is now the official redistricting map until the appeal process comes to an end. This article explains it all.
Florida’s redistricting process has dragged on for months.www.politico.com
Until the appeal process comes to an end or the stay is revoked, we now have 46 states which has completed redistricting, 4 have yet to draw their maps. The 4 states are Kansas, New York, Missouri and New Hampshire. 395 districts are now completed, leaving 40 districts to be redrawn. There are 42 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 15 May 2022, 167 Democratic, 186 Republican.
The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 51 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 32. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column along with how many will go into the competitive/at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Kansas, New York, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
Although this differs a bit from 538, it is the average of cook, Rothenberg, EP, RCP etc. Here’s 538’s.
I figure both New Hampshire seats will fall into the competitive, at risk column. Then Kansas will add 3 safe seats to the GOP and 1 to the Democrats. Missouri splits 6-2 while New York will add 18 safe seats to the Democrats with 4 to the GOP. That 188 safe democratic seats, 195 GOP seats if my numbers add up. Although the above is an estimate on my part for the remaining 4 states who haven’t completed redistricting. Both New Hampshire seats are held by Democrats, so say 33 Democratic seats at risk vs 11 for the GOP. A whopping 22 seat difference. No way will the democrats lose all 33 and I don’t think the Republicans will win all of their 11. If you split it 50-50 which rarely happens, the Democrats lose 17 of their seats, but gain 5 of the GOP seats for a net gain of 12. Take the generic ballot into consideration, The GOP has a 2.5-point lead, so say 15 or so seat gain. That’s half of the 30 seats needed to be considered a wave election. But enoughj to retake control of the house. I'll address the senate later if you'd like.
Well, we had info for the same question from the same pollster available to us (apples to apples) for both men, right within the one new NBC poll. So, with that in mind, I do think going to a different question from a different pollster and taking screenshots for just one of the two men (the one the thread wasn't even about) - was just silly. Why would one not make a comparison using the best comparison data we could possibly have (same pollster, same question, all included in the same poll)? I think the answer is easy - an obvious desire to purposely twist to reflect a personally preferred narrative.If you think
“In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?”
“do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction”
are “apples to spinach” comparisons, you should look into reading comprehension lessons.
While I don't disagree with you, the two party system cannot be scrapped wholesale anytime soon. What I was sort of hoping for is a complete fracturing of both parties and then coalitions could be formed (even if it was coalitions of different factions of differing parties). Requiring a coalition to get things passed would result in more people being represented, and I can almost guarantee you that the biggest coalition would be center left and center right.Back on election day, under Trump 29% said this country was headed in the right direction, 65% in the wrong direction.
Today, RCP averages has it under Biden 26.3%, wrong direction 67.3%.
In other words, neither Trump nor Biden had or has this country headed in the right direction. Time for someone else, time for some other party than Republicans and or Democrats to take charge. Neither are worth a plug nickel. Change Biden for Trump or Trump for Biden, same results. Time for a real change. Time to get rid of our two-party monopoly. Neither has the faintest idea of what they’re doing or even what needs to be done.
When you die, I hope there's a place for you with the foundersWhat's wrong with that? That was the original intent of our brilliant founders.
Add the recent leak on the abortion issue to inflation and it is a wonder it isn't 100% who think things are going the wrong way.Gas, food, everything…all super expensive. People can debate about blame all day long, but at the end of the day people are inherently self-centered so their wallet is what will matter. It’s not all that surprising that many would think things aren’t headed in the right direction.
Because "Making America Great Again" was never the trump administrations' goal. He left the country in the hugest mess and more divided than we've ever been. He rose to power on hate speech about people from Mexico and Muslim people. How anyone can support the evil and cynicism of the current Republican/aka Taliban party is beyond me. How can anyone be proud to be a Republican today?How is wanting to make America great again anti-American?
Your above failed attempt to cover for your previous fail only embarrasses you further.Well, we had info for the same question from the same pollster available to us (apples to apples) for both men, right within the one new NBC poll. So, with that in mind, I do think going to a different question from a different pollster and taking screenshots for just one of the two men (the one the thread wasn't even about) - was just silly. Why would one not make a comparison using the best comparison data we could possibly have (same pollster, same question, all included in the same poll)? I think the answer is easy - an obvious desire to purposely twist to reflect a personally preferred narrative.
Lol, I've heard teens use this expression in recent times and I think it's very fitting here - You do youYour above failed attempt to cover for your previous fail only embarrasses you further.
Always better to willingly acknowledge an honest mistake than to compound an error with a deliberate fraud.
Forgive me for making an assumption, but I have you pegged as someone somewhere left of center. I am not Russian. I am American by birth. What I mean by “you guys” is those of you on the left.So... "you guys". Are you Russian? Sorry man, I don't care what the Russians think.
Well. If you're an American you have two choices now, my friend.Forgive me for making an assumption, but I have you pegged as someone somewhere left of center. I am not Russian. I am American by birth. What I mean by “you guys” is those of you on the left.
That wasn't hate speech. It was truth speech. And yes, his goal was to make America great again after the abysmal Obama/Biden usurpation. We were on course until the coup took place on election day.He rose to power on hate speech about people from Mexico and Muslim people.
LOL. Hey, are you grumpy because inflation drove up the cost of sheets and tiki torches?That wasn't hate speech. It was truth speech. And yes, his goal was to make America great again after the abysmal Obama/Biden usurpation. We were on course until the coup took place on election day.
This is not a response to what I said to you.Well. If you're an American you have two choices now, my friend.
1. Throw your lot in with the Republicans, who wish to turn America into Belarus, an authoritarian, oppressive regime, loyal to Putin; or:
2 The Democrats, the party trying to preserve our democracy.
I sure hope you make the correct choice.