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‘Massive obliteration’ if Russia fails to take Ukraine’s east

Rogue Valley

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‘Massive obliteration’ if Russia fails to take Ukraine’s east

iu

4.20.22
The war in Ukraine massively intensified during its eighth week. Ukraine sank Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea, Russia launched a new phase of the war with a concerted bid to take over the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, and the United States began to ship heavy artillery to Ukraine. This military escalation stood in contrast to the lack of diplomatic or economic developments. Russian-Ukrainian talks have stalled and the West has stopped escalating sanctions, instead shipping more weapons to Ukraine. “This morning, almost along the whole front line of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, the occupiers attempted to break through our defences,” said Oleksiy Davilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security council, told Ukrainian media on April 18. “Fortunately our military is holding out. They passed through only two towns – Kreminna and another small one.” Russian attacks were reported along a 500km (300-mile) front. In the area of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces retook the towns of Bazaliivka, Lebyazhe, and Kutuzivka, as well as smaller villages, in a counteroffensive begun on April 16. Ukrainian counterattacks also continued just west of Kherson, in the southwest of the country.

Russia has tried and failed to control Ukraine through different strategies – political intrigue, diplomacy, ultimatum, and outright conquest, said Jose Miguel Alonso-Trabanco, a researcher at New Zealand’s Massey University. Now it is trying partition. “The Russians are concentrating their efforts on eastern Ukraine, a shift that could indicate their interest in negotiating from a position of strength, or the partition of Ukraine so that they can directly control the Donbas, the coastline – including places like Mariupol and Odesa – and much of what lies east of the Dnieper River,” Alonso-Trabanco told Al Jazeera, expressing his personal opinion. However, if even partition fails, he said he believes the war could become one of complete annihilation. “If the Russians are unable to reach a quick victory and this military intervention becomes a long war, then Moscow could likely refocus its efforts and capabilities towards the outright dismantlement of Ukraine as a functional national state,” said Alonso-Trabanco. “That would entail the massive obliteration of infrastructure, territorial fragmentation, political and economic instability and an even larger exodus of population,” he said. “A country under such chaotic conditions can’t have a viable future.”


The stakes couldn't be higher. The choices are for Ukraine boil down to victory or obliteration.

For Putin the choices boil down to palpable victory or a coup.
 
However, if even partition fails, he said he believes the war could become one of complete annihilation.
At that point you have to wonder what the NATO response should be. Hopefully the weapons given to Ukraine will be enough for Ukraine to protect itself, unless Russia goes nuclear of course.
 
‘Massive obliteration’ if Russia fails to take Ukraine’s east

iu




The stakes couldn't be higher. The choices are for Ukraine boil down to victory or obliteration.

For Putin the choices boil down to palpable victory or a coup.
I think Putin is living on borrowed time. The sanctions are going to debilitate the Russian economy. And we all knows who gets the blame of a bad economy.

Putin will be lucky if he merely gets voted out.

More likely is that he will 'get KGB'd.'
 
I think Putin is living on borrowed time. The sanctions are going to debilitate the Russian economy. And we all knows who gets the blame of a bad economy.

The problem is countries like India, China, and Brazil are more than happy to take advantage of the situation and buy cheap oil from the Russians. I hear India is getting its oil from the Russians at 1/2 price right now. That's a very sweet deal.
 
At that point you have to wonder what the NATO response should be. Hopefully the weapons given to Ukraine will be enough for Ukraine to protect itself, unless Russia goes nuclear of course.
This really is a precarious position. There are 'easy' answers to this. For example..."Hey..>Russia...look...we have NO INTEREST in going to war with you...but any enemy troops or equipment that is in Ukraine after the next 48 hours will be obliterated. Nothing but love for you...have a super day".

No war...just supporting a sovereign nation under attack.

But its never that easy. And if that is the action, does that then become the standard? Do we do the same thing the next time some tin pot dictator moves in on a country in Africa for example...or Taiwan?
 
The problem is countries like India, China, and Brazil are more than happy to take advantage of the situation and buy cheap oil from the Russians. I hear India is getting its oil from the Russians at 1/2 price right now. That's a very sweet deal.
Then we need to place sanctions on those nations for doing that. Putin can not be allowed to just get away with this and then we go right back to business as usual. That would be unacceptable.

Nations choosing to side with Russia should be isolated from the greater world economy.
 
I do not think NATO will allow Ukraine to be wiped off the map as a political entity, as long as NATO holds. If the French elections come out as now expected, Macron winning over Le Pen, NATO should hold.
 
Then we need to place sanctions on those nations for doing that. Putin can not be allowed to just get away with this and then we go right back to business as usual. That would be unacceptable.

Nations choosing to side with Russia should be isolated from the greater world economy.

But we are putting sanctions on everybody already now: Russia, Iran, N. Korea.... and now you are talking India, China, Brazil, etc, etc... That's over half the world. Basically then you are going to have 2 parallel world economies: one led by the US, the other by China.

Basically at some point we are going to be isolating and sanctioning ourselves.

I am not saying I have the answers- just pointing out the problem I see.
 
This really is a precarious position. There are 'easy' answers to this. For example..."Hey..>Russia...look...we have NO INTEREST in going to war with you...but any enemy troops or equipment that is in Ukraine after the next 48 hours will be obliterated. Nothing but love for you...have a super day".

No war...just supporting a sovereign nation under attack.

But its never that easy. And if that is the action, does that then become the standard? Do we do the same thing the next time some tin pot dictator moves in on a country in Africa for example...or Taiwan?
No. We need to stay out of wars.

It would have been one thing if the UN declared the Russian force build up to be a prelude to war and then took aggressive action, meaning every other nation on Earth contributes troops to a matching build up on the Ukraine side. That would have shown Russia that the world has no taste for war and is willing to do whatever is needed to prevent it.

But that sort of stand off with all those troops and weapons aimed at one another would have been a very scary situation, capable of quickly devolving once any shooting began. Or it would have sent the message to Putin that he was not about to get away with an easy time of attacking Ukraine. It could have ended things before they got started.

But that didn't happen and we certainly didn't want to contribute American troops to it unless the rest of the world was in on it. So we let Ukraine fight their own battles and we support them.

There is no 'explaining' a direct US involvement in the defense of Ukraine and expecting Russia to draw a line at retaliating directly on the USA, nor refrain from using nukes and ending the world as we know it.

We have to move carefully. I am impressed by our handling of the situation thus far. I think Biden and the State Department are doing an excellent job. It is a very high stakes endeavor. It needs to be handled very carefully by highly experienced professionals who understand all the risks. That probably leaves most of us armchair diplomats out.
 
But we are putting sanctions on everybody already now: Russia, Iran, N. Korea.... and now you are talking India, China, Brazil, etc, etc... That's over half the world. Basically then you are going to have 2 parallel world economies: one led by the US, the other by China.

Basically at some point we are going to be isolating and sanctioning ourselves.

I am not saying I have the answers- just pointing out the problem I see.
Yes, no easy solution. But those nations supporting Russia should face some kind of repercussions from doing that.
 
Yes, no easy solution. But those nations supporting Russia should face some kind of repercussions from doing that.

Washington said yesterday it is looking into that.
 
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