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    PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 July 2020

    Graham in SC is definitely more vulnerable than most people think he is. Republicans don't seem to like Graham very much and he only keeps winning because he hasn't had a strong challenger. This time he has a very strong challenger who knows the political game very well although he hasn't...
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    OldFatGuy told me that he knew politics better than me...

    Those voters won't be "axed", they will still be in a congressional district. AOC will likely still run in that district, and she is wildly popular, so I dunno why she wouldn't win again. Or maybe, she will just have to move to the new districts in Texas, after all, Texas is no longer a solid...
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    Democrats ... are you still fighting for $15 minimum wage?

    They care very much. They care enough to look up the historic data, and discover that there is no correlation between moderate increases in min wage and either unemployment or inflation. Republicans don't care about facts or the well being of others, they just care about their rhetoric.
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    OldFatGuy told me that he knew politics better than me...

    So I take it he isn't around any more.
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    How many terms will Ocasio Cortez serve until primaried out of Congress?

    Yes, you are not a republican. And you certainly aren't knowledgeable about your own voting district. I told you so. AOC wins NY Democratic primary against Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, CNN projects - CNNPolitics
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    OldFatGuy told me that he knew politics better than me...

    He insisted that he knew more than me because he lived in New York and understood the voters there and the dynamics of their politics. He seemed to be very angry about my prediction that she would win by a landslide again. Guess he was mistaken. I have been waiting for the opportunity to say...
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    PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 May 2020

    I'm thinking that there will be another round of corona recovery bills. Republicans want to buy votes and to make sure our economy recovers before the election, and Democrats will never vote against spending. I suspect this will favor republicans a bit, especially after democrats hold up the...
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    Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

    We know the number of confirmed cases. So the death rate that Im referring to is the death rate for confirmed diagnosed cases. In the US it is around 40%, so if we are only confirming 10%, the overall deathrate would be around 4%, assuming that we don't have unconfirmed cases dying. That is...
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    Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

    If four people are shot, one dies, and the other are still hospitalized, you know that the death rate is at least 25%, but it could end up being as high as 100%. Until the remaining 3 people are either discharged and considered healthy, or die, you dunno. That's why we can't include people who...
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    Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

    We do have a known denominator. We can divide the number of deaths by the number of total resolved cases, and get a reasonable estimate. As time passes and we collect more info, I'm sure that will vary some, but if 40% of confirmed cases in a particular region die, I don't think that percent...
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    Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

    I used the figure that is directly on the link. It is just a little down from the top, on the right side, inside of a square. The way you are computing it is you are including all reported cases, even if those cases are unresolved. The statistical error in this is that you have no way of...
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    Anyone else notice that the actual death rate is much higher than most people claim...

    Where are people getting that it is just one or two percent? The actual death rate isn't the number of deaths divided by the number of total cases. It's the number of deaths divided by the number of total closed cases. According to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,588,963 Cases and 94,942...
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    Mixed Economy

    Pessimistic? Or realistic? I think realistic. There are always people who fall through the cracks of the free market.
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    The Great Bailout - how it works?

    How is it inflationary? My concern is that we may have some inflation, but that is due to manufacturing plants shutting down, making supply tighter.
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    The Great Bailout - how it works?

    yet none of that happened. The bill was written by Senate republicans, not Nancy Pelosi in the House. It was republicans trying to delay the bill in the Senate, they wanted days more of floor debate, dems said that they could resolve the issues faster in conference. Dems were successful.
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    Good News for Trump!

    Hell, she actively campaigned against Trump. Trump removed her as Governor, and put a Trumper in that slot. Banished her to the UN, which he hates. She has publicly called trump a liar, and resigned when he pressured her to do wrong. I think she is a decent person. Way to decent to ever be...
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    Senate Republicans plan first subpoena in Burisma, Biden probe

    Why hasn't he already presented it like he said he would many weeks ago?
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    How inflationary is the federal minimum wage rate?

    Most likely inflation would only occur in industries that are significantly underpaid. Higher paying industries likely will not have any inflation at all, except for the scant tad created by the underpaying industries. Overall, doubling our minimum age may produce a once time inflationary...
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    Slowing economy complicates campaign messaging for Trump

    Rights are established by government. Without government, your only right is the right to whatever you have or can get, and if someone bigger or stronger comes along and decides that he wants what you have, you have no right to it, he does. You have no right, because without some form of...
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    Should the incomes of the wealthy be cut down to size?

    Then at any tax rate less than 100%, he would have kept working, wouldn't he. So higher tax rates don't really discourage the work of the elite or highly skilled.
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