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  • The econ forum has taken a turn for the worst, which is why my activity here has thinned out completely. That and the level of new idiot posters is at an all-time high.
    Just staying busy and on my toes. I am glad to see you have come around! ;-) All kidding aside, i think earnings will continue to meet or beat expectations throughout 2013 and into 2014 which would likely increase the demand for labor. I am estimating between 2.5 and 3.1 million new jobs for 2013, which could push unemployment below 7% by year end. Assuming of course political brinkmanship is resolved! I do agree a pull-back is in the works, but wouldn't expect anything dramatic until right before Q1 earnings are reported.
    No idea. He pops in once every blue moon. Not near as often as he use to which is a shame. He is a great poster.
    I agree with you regarding the lack of decorum for his liberal counterpart! Sometimes I laugh because he is witty but man.....he also can be brutal and mean.
    Yeah...have been really missing you and OldReliable on the forum for some reasoned alternative perspective. Glad you're back on
    Fixing the purchase date to the health of the labor market is (IMO) the best decision the Fed has made as of late. Previous rounds were really just gifts for portfolio managers. However, i still believe the federal government needs to run with this opportunity by funding infrastructure and public works projects in the tune of 3% of GDP. Monetary policy alone cannot solve this problem.
    Previous QE attempts have not been capable of sustaining an increase of inflation expectations for reasons outlined prior (it is why you see peaks and troughs across the breakeven). An agency asset buying program in which its duration is tied to the unemployment rate is divergent from these previous rounds.
    With a perpetual monetary easing program, the Fed can maintain stringent control of interest rates, and therefore have a meaningful impact on inflation expectations ;)
    I agree that the Fed can reduce discrete interest rates; but that is not the same as increasing inflation expectations ;)
    Yes Thanks, please PM me the link if it's in any email-able form.
    I hadn't bought it yet.
    The [W:XX] thing is a relatively new idea. The problem arises when mods drop an inthread modbox warning, and some posters either ignore the warning or fail to see it, and continue to break the rules. Basically the number after the W is the post number of the modbox warning so if people say they didn't see a particular warning, they don't have as much of an excuse because we now let them know in the thread title where the warning took place.
    I just saw your KB VM.
    Coincidentally, after I posted another string on something I learned from him and that is mentioned in some of the vids; ZIRP.
    I'm a financial professional and I find him the most riveting person I've ever listened to on economics.
    Somebody knew something before the rest of the market; a stronger jobs report, manufacturing data, and consumer confidence will force the Fed to raise rates.
    Up over $500 million on $10 billion leverage ;)

    As anticipated, the employment report points to an eminent labor market recovery.
    Thanks, I believe I posted that statistic a year or two ago and when you get to the top one percent its less than a nickel
    that's perfect. post it on the "illinois to provide test case" thread in the Econ forum.

    laboratories of democracy, yes sir....
    You're can probably make a bigger impact just among your friends and co-workers than you can on the internet. I've actually changed the minds of people I know in real life. I've NEVER changed the mind of anyone on the internet. Bang for the buck, working in your local community is probably more effective.
    I often feel the same way. I just get tired of those who feel they own their fellow man. Giving up is not an option though, IMHO.
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