Yen at 158 per Dollar

[medi]

I'm going to try and see what the link below (the first one) will give you if you have a non-Japanese IP address.

為替 1ドル=158円台まで値下がり 円安がさらに加速 | NHK

【NHK】26日のニューヨーク外国為替市場では日銀の金融政策決定会合の結果などを受けて円安が一段と加速し、円相場は1ドル＝158円…

www3-nhk-or-jp.translate.goog

But I think I should go ahead and copy to here the full Google translated NHK article.

Exchange rate: 1 dollar = 158 yen level drop, yen depreciation further accelerates
April 27, 2024 5:37am

At the New York foreign exchange market on the 26th, the yen's depreciation further accelerated, and the yen exchange rate temporarily fell to the 158 yen level to the dollar. This is the first time in approximately 34 years that the dollar has been at the 158 yen level since May 1990.

After the Bank of Japan maintained its current policy at its monetary policy meeting on the 26th and Governor Ueda's remarks at a press conference, there was widespread speculation that it would take time for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further.

As a result, the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States becomes more conscious, and the movement to sell yen and buy dollars becomes even stronger.

Some folks here in Japan have obviously been keeping an eye on this for a while. I was actually not wanting to post a thread here on this, but now it may be the situation can no longer be kind of stuffed into a bottom drawer. Meaning, I'm starting to get nervous. Given the complex nature of economics on this planet it really is not easy even for professionals to identify where the little hole might show itself.

Funny, too, because economic forecasting is a whole bunch like the primary purpose of this community, which is discussing/studying politics. There are thousands of ways to look at matters of a political nature, and just as many when looking at the ins-and-outs of economic matters.

This 158 to the dollar could be of absolutely no significance in the grand game. Or it could be the first sign of trouble. Obviously, I don't mean 'little' trouble.

Me, as I wrote, am a tad bit more than a little nervous. Have been watching this for a bit too long without allowing it to properly sink in. This post means that's changed.

And just in case anyone is interested, the original:

為替 1ドル=158円台まで値下がり 円安がさらに加速 | NHK

【NHK】26日のニューヨーク外国為替市場では日銀の金融政策決定会合の結果などを受けて円安が一段と加速し、円相場は1ドル＝158円…

www3.nhk.or.jp

 

[Fledermaus]

I'm going to try and see what the link below (the first one) will give you if you have a non-Japanese IP address.

為替 1ドル=158円台まで値下がり 円安がさらに加速 | NHK

【NHK】26日のニューヨーク外国為替市場では日銀の金融政策決定会合の結果などを受けて円安が一段と加速し、円相場は1ドル＝158円…

www3-nhk-or-jp.translate.goog

But I think I should go ahead and copy to here the full Google translated NHK article.



Some folks here in Japan have obviously been keeping an eye on this for a while. I was actually not wanting to post a thread here on this, but now it may be the situation can no longer be kind of stuffed into a bottom drawer. Meaning, I'm starting to get nervous. Given the complex nature of economics on this planet it really is not easy even for professionals to identify where the little hole might show itself.

Funny, too, because economic forecasting is a whole bunch like the primary purpose of this community, which is discussing/studying politics. There are thousands of ways to look at matters of a political nature, and just as many when looking at the ins-and-outs of economic matters.

This 158 to the dollar could be of absolutely no significance in the grand game. Or it could be the first sign of trouble. Obviously, I don't mean 'little' trouble.

Me, as I wrote, am a tad bit more than a little nervous. Have been watching this for a bit too long without allowing it to properly sink in. This post means that's changed.

And just in case anyone is interested, the original:

為替 1ドル=158円台まで値下がり 円安がさらに加速 | NHK

【NHK】26日のニューヨーク外国為替市場では日銀の金融政策決定会合の結果などを受けて円安が一段と加速し、円相場は1ドル＝158円…

www3.nhk.or.jp

What kind of "trouble"?

I have seen the yen go for 364 to the dollar to 99 and back to 158...

 

[medi]

What kind of "trouble"?

I have seen the yen go for 364 to the dollar to 99 and back to 158...

I don't think there is one definitive answer to the question of what kind of trouble, but I eventually found an article I had in my files from a fair bit back and just checked and it can still be accessed on a Reuters page:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE49Q1AN/

And I'd like to copy an interesting bit of information on that page:

1963 - The margin of fluctuation is widened to 0.75 percent. 1971 - United States abandons gold standard, bringing an end to the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and forcing a realignment of world currencies.

December 1971 - Under the Smithsonian Agreement, the dollar/yen exchange rate is set at 308 yen and is allowed to fluctuate in a wider band between 301.07 yen and 314.93 yen.

1973 - Japanese monetary authorities decide to let the yen float freely against the dollar, and the yen appreciates as far as 263 to the dollar.

Funny, too, this thread and digging for such information reminds me of so many years ago when active duty folks in some countries were only legally allowed to carry around "Funny Money" or the local currency. Funny Money being MPC. And anyone who has lived in that sort of world might also have been hit with that alert business when everyone has to go to their post/camp/base and change their MPC. Just a side note. I don't think that style has been around for many, many years.

 

[TobyOne]

Is Japan printing money? Whats the reason for the drop?

 

[medi]

Is Japan printing money? Whats the reason for the drop?

That sure as heck is the key question and it would appear that some editor at NHK wants to sit on this as an answer:

"... interest rate differential ..."

But I doubt there is just one factor involved. As a matter of fact your question is now reminding me of an interesting article I recently read on this topic and I am betting I saved a copy on one of my computers. But I don't even remember what language it was written in. Or by whom. I think I'll try to dig that up. I hope it is on one of the computers in this house and not the other place over the hills.

 

[bomberfox]

Huh good to know for my trip to Japan. Ill give some dollars and hit the furry bar in the afternoon!

 

[Gatsby]

Japan has an extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio, which is likely one of the reasons its currency is losing value. And maybe that wouldn't even be a problem if it had a booming economy, but Japan is in the midst of demographic collapse. It's the oldest country in the world and it has a horrifying fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman.

And it's a shame, because I love Japan. In many ways, we Westerners could learn a lot from them. I wish they were doing better.

 

[sanman]

158 Yen to the Dollar -- hasn't been seen since 1986.

This will make Japanese goods and services cheaper and more affordable to us.


And you know what that means, don't you?

It means we can hire Japanese animation studios to make lots of cartoons for us again, like the golden age of cartoons in the 80s.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Is Japan printing money? Whats the reason for the drop?

Basically printing money, and at the same time not improving productivity to counter it.

Japan's economy is now smaller than Germany's, and GDP per capita on par with South Korea

The government debt to GDP is over 250% if I recall correctly. So while the yen drop is great for exporters, it hurts as most energy is imported. Japan used to have a trade surplus but it regularly running a trade deficit, it is getting old as a population as well. So unless it restarts its nuke plants Japan is in for a world of hurt in the next 20 years overall