Who trusts Tesla, Musk?

[phoenix2020]

You keep speaking of magic, yet this is not magic, its science, computers and state machines gone crazy, no need for magic here only science.

Software is deterministic so state machines can't go "crazy" - at most there would be an unexpected state transition. And if you had any background in this space you'd know the degree to which ASIL rated state transitions are pushed through static and dynamic code analysis to make sure all branching paths are identified and properly handled. This is safety-rated embedded SW 101 and has been an established field for over a decade. This is why no one in this field jumps to an assumption about a SW fault until the problem is properly root caused.

No offense but are you sure you know anything about software? Your posts have a very early-2000s "my javascript doesn't work!" vibe to them.

 

[fortune]

The recent crash of a Tesla with two people in it (neither of whom were in the drivers seat) and the subsequent raging fire, is another example of how our society has allowed super rich people to do what they want.

These cars should simply not be on the roads, and I have no idea how they were ever approved.

In addition Tesla "assure" us that the logs they recovered from the car show no autopilot was engaged - why should we trust his word?

Surely these logs should be impartially examined, how can we be sure Tesla are being honest?

I trust my Tesla to beat any stock four door 0-60 and 1/8 mile and 1/4 mile. That's why I took a short lease on a '18 S-P100D... to toast AMD's and the like. Covid has ruined my fun at the track though.

That aside computer vision works and has worked for decades but FSD I have to wait for (I didn't have the option anyway)

 

[phoenix2020]

I trust my Tesla to beat any stock four door 0-60 and 1/8 mile and 1/4 mile. That's why I took a short lease on a '18 S-P100D... to toast AMD's and the like. Covid has ruined my fun at the track though.

That aside computer vision works and has worked for decades but FSD I have to wait for (I didn't have the option anyway)

We had FSD on our S but opted out of purchasing it on our 3. Personally I don't think you're missing much and at the prices they are charging these days, it feels a bit silly when the base car already includes adaptive cruise and lane-keeping.

I'm completely with you on the torque response, it NEVER gets old!

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

In any case, while I think Elon Musk is a braggart with a Trumpian tendency to overpromise and underdeliver, I think the vehicles themselves are fantastically engineered. We've had them in our household for five years now and could never imagine going back. Between the simply outstanding chassis tuning and vehicle dynamics, the rock-solid reliability and maintenance free operation, extremely low cost of ownership and numerous safety advantages (from ADAS to low CoG to crash structure) we love the cars. We don't use any of the auto-pilot functions - having to touch the wheel every 30 seconds is enough of a headache that I don't bother with it.

How romantic, here's something about the "rock-solid reliability" - now, where did I put my rose tinted glasses, that must be what's wrong here...







This information is all over the web, everywhere so you have no excuse for the delusional remarks you've made about "rock-solid reliability", then again who needs facts, whimsy is so much more fun.

 

[Fledermaus]

Had a feeling you'd be afraid to answer honestly, oh well, nothing new there, by the way what's your real name? Elon Musk perhaps?

You presented an "if".

"If" does not apply to this incident.

It is you who continues to ignore the real reason for the crash.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Says the person who insists that we investigate the invisible tigers in his backyard because he has absolutely no evidence that there are any invisible tigers there, but has some suspicions and once read some internet posts about invisible tiger infestations.

Says the person who insists we are all a simulation and that the universe is just a hologram.

 

[phoenix2020]

How romantic, here's something about the "rock-solid reliability" - now, where did I put my rose tinted glasses, that must be what's wrong here...

View attachment 67329965

View attachment 67329968

View attachment 67329969

This information is all over the web, everywhere so you have no excuse for the delusional remarks you've made about "rock-solid reliability".

I of course don't need to read this information since I am an owner and live about 15 miles from the factory. Everyone who owns a Tesla is well acquainted with the initial quality often being a mess. One's lucky to pick up a car that's perfect off the lot. The reason Tesla has by far the highest brand loyalty and satisfaction is the "rock solid reliability" that comes after you deal with the teething issues--and the teething issues are predominantly aesthetic e.g. panel gaps. I imagine you're not a driver since you don't know this, but most people who've driven a vehicle for an extended period of time come to realize that reliability is measured by lifetime service and repair--not the things that break in Year 1 when you have a fully warranty, but those that break long after the warranty is gone.

I'll never have to worry about cylinder misfires, transmission failures, and frequent brake replacements. I'll never have to worry about oil leaks or oxygen sensors failing. It's a car with an electrochemical storage device (inherently reliable and predictable with no moving parts) and electric motors which is a 100+ year proven technology. There's a massive reliability advantage to BEVs in general that it doesn't surprise me would be beyond your comprehension but that's OK. Someone's got to keep those engine service shops in business, might as well be you.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

You presented an "if".

"If" does not apply to this incident.

It is you who continues to ignore the real reason for the crash.

I asked a question you are afraid to answer honestly.

 

[Fledermaus]

How romantic, here's something about the "rock-solid reliability" - now, where did I put my rose tinted glasses, that must be what's wrong here...

View attachment 67329965

View attachment 67329968

View attachment 67329969

This information is all over the web, everywhere so you have no excuse for the delusional remarks you've made about "rock-solid reliability", then again who needs facts, whimsy is so much more fun.

So, the two idiots who killed themselves.

Have you Sherlocked why it happened?

 

[Fledermaus]

I asked a question you are afraid to answer honestly.

You asked an irrelevant question.

But I am feeling generous. Feel free to ask again.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

I of course don't need to read this information since I am an owner and live about 15 miles from the factory. Everyone who owns a Tesla is well acquainted with the initial quality often being a mess. The reason Tesla has by far the highest brand loyalty and satisfaction is the "rock solid reliability" that comes after you deal with the teething issue. I'll never have to worry about cylinder misfires, transmission failures, and frequent brake replacements. I'll never have to worry about oil leaks or oxygen sensors failing. It's a car with an electrochemical storage device (inherently reliable and predictable with no moving parts) and electric motors which is a 100+ year proven technology. There's a massive reliability advantage to BEVs in general that it doesn't surprise me would be beyond your comprehension but that's OK. Someone's got to keep those engine service shops in business, might as well be you.

So forget the facts, forget the in-depth consumer reports carried out by teams very skilled and experienced with the auto industry, just repeat "the cars have rock-solid reliability", OK I see how this works.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

You asked an irrelevant question.

But I am feeling generous. Feel free to ask again.

Nope, that ship has sailed, you had your chance.

 

[phoenix2020]

So forget the facts, forget the in-depth consumer reports carried out by teams very skilled and experienced with the auto industry, just repeat "the cars have rock-solid reliability", OK I see how this works.

Yes, I don't pay attention to "predicted reliability" estimates by a magazine that doesn't put vehicles through endurance testing since I work with reliability/durability engineers every day and can go straight to the data. The proof of long-term reliability is in how often a drivetrain will need replacement over 10 years, for example. Go try finding that out from Consumer Reports. (Or take my word that they don't know; I'm a subscriber and am well acquainted with their reports, I just possess the ability to critically evaluate them whereas you can only regurgitate them.)

 

[SMTA]

Bottom line, as someone who knows a great deal about software, its pitfalls, the complexity, difficulty in testing, debugging and proving, I am definitely disinclined to trust it.

The "logs" - man, these logs are there for Tesla own purposes, they are not mandated by law and the law did not gain control of the logs as is the case with the NTSB and an aircraft.

96% of new cars sold in the US today have black boxes, known as EDRs (Event Data Recorders).
Puts it all in a different light now, don’t it?

 

[Fledermaus]

Nope, that ship has sailed, you had your chance.

You whined because I didn't answer an irrelevant question.

Now you are being childish when I offer the answer.

"If I take my Smith Wesson model 29 out for a spin and fire off some shots and the cylinder explodes firing shrapnel into my face or my companion's face, is that by definition, 100% absolutely my fault?"

WHY did the cylinder explode? Without knowing the WHY one cannot determine guilt. Wrong ammunition? Obstructed bore? Home loaded and exceeded CUP for the ammunition?

All point to the shooter and not the weapon.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Yes, I don't pay attention to "predicted reliability" estimates by a magazine since I work with reliability/durability engineers every day. The proof is in how often a drivetrain will need replacement over 10 years. Go try finding that out from Consumer Reports. (Or take my word that they don't know; I'm a subscriber and am well acquainted with their reports, I just possess the ability to critically evaluate them whereas you can only regurgitate them.)

Yes I get it, you have the gift and everyone who has the gift knows the truth, the rest of us are lost, confused, have no idea what's really going on - OK I get it, trust Musk, trust Musk, trust Musk...

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

96% of new cars sold in the US today have black boxes, known as EDRs (Event Data Recorders).
Puts it all in a different light now, don’t it?

The vehicle in question has no EDR.

 

[Fledermaus]

The vehicle in question has no EDR.

Because they upload the information real time perhaps...

 

[phoenix2020]

Yes I get it, you have the gift and everyone who has the gift knows the truth, the rest of us are lost, confused, have no idea what's really going on - OK I get it.

Now you're starting to get it. Fortunately there's a path forward for you as well. First, you need to set aside the irrational Elon Musk hate and just evaluate the products which are not the result of one person who gives you a tummy ache, but thousands of smart, experienced engineers working day-in and day-out to create a good product they are proud of. Or, keep up the Hate but compartmentalize it from the product. This will be hard but I think you can do it. Second, you need to zoom out from Tesla altogether and start understanding how ADAS systems work, and read a book on safety-rated software development. This will help you better assess how this field of software development compares to the potentially-less-robust one you're familiar with. Third and finally, you should get some experience with long-term ownership of cars to understand the difference between initial and long-term reliability, as well as the difference between predicted and actual reliability. This will give you a well-rounded base of information to evaluate this emerging field.

If you hit me up on PM I'd be happy to suggest some good books.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Because they upload the information real time perhaps...

Yes, that's the idea but it assumes the network connectivity is never compromised, can log and send data under all circumstances, like when the systems themselves are burning...

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Now you're starting to get it. Fortunately there's a path forward for you as well. First, you need to set aside the irrational Elon Musk hate and just evaluate the products which are not the result of one person who gives you a tummy ache, but thousands of smart, experienced engineers working day-in and day-out to create a good product they are proud of. Or, keep up the Hate but compartmentalize it from the product. This will be hard but I think you can do it. Second, you need to zoom out from Tesla altogether and start understanding how ADAS systems work, and read a book on safety-rated software development. This will help you better assess how this field of software development compares to the potentially-less-robust one you're familiar with. Third and finally, you should get some experience with long-term ownership of cars to understand the difference between initial and long-term reliability, as well as the difference between predicted and actual reliability. This will give you a well-rounded base of information to evaluate this emerging field.

If you hit me up on PM I'd be happy to suggest some good books.

My dislike of Musk is not irrational at all, no more so than my dislike of Trump, there are reasons, many of them and they are well known and in the public domain, there are often very rational reasons for disliking people.

The facts are the facts, the reliability data is what it is. Clearly you want to dismiss it and explain to me how all these industry and engineering press don't understand what reliability means but of course you do, but that's rather a tall order I'm afraid, I'd need a bit more data beside your opinions and assurances.

Software is software is software and inherently struggles with bugs of all types ranging from ambiguous specifications, insufficient testing, hardware reliability, noise, transients, version mismatches, bugs in compilers and operating systems, bugs stemming from poorly implemented concurrency, bugs in hardware even (FPGAs) and so on.

Yes one can take steps to improve in all these areas but it is subject to the well known law of diminishing returns.



and



What does "beta" actually mean in the world of software? here's one definition:



So there we have it beta builds exist to "test performance and identify bugs", Tesla can't afford or don't have the resources to test the software to the high standards of robustness and safety you allude to, so instead trickle it out the loyal customers and let them do the donkey work, sure one or two might die but hey, this is the brave new world.

 

[fortune]

How romantic, here's something about the "rock-solid reliability" - now, where did I put my rose tinted glasses, that must be what's wrong here...

View attachment 67329965

View attachment 67329968

View attachment 67329969

This information is all over the web, everywhere so you have no excuse for the delusional remarks you've made about "rock-solid reliability", then again who needs facts, whimsy is so much more fun.

I have to apologize for not being on the web so that you can find out if I have any expertise but nevertheless I offer that I have been a gear head since the 60s and religious auto racer, builder, and promoter too and will state that not one of those automobiles will still be on the road after 400,000 miles as they all have about 100,000 moving parts compared to to maybe 300 on an EV.

One more thing (as I see an ask for more proof from the web coming), top end EVs have battery packs that last well over 400,000 miles but that is sort of irrelevant becasue there ere no EVs yet (as far as I know) that have been driven that distance.

 

[Fledermaus]

Yes, that's the idea but it assumes the network connectivity is never compromised, can log and send data under all circumstances, like when the systems themselves are burning...

There you go again.... More shit on the walls.

 

[Fledermaus]

My dislike of Musk is not irrational at all, no more so than my dislike of Trump, there are reasons, many of them and they are well known and in the public domain, there are often very rational reasons for disliking people.

The facts are the facts, the reliability data is what it is. Clearly you want to dismiss it and explain to me how all these industry and engineering press don't understand what reliability means but of course you do, but that's rather a tall order I'm afraid, I'd need a bit more data beside your opinions and assurances.

Software is software is software and inherently struggles with bugs of all types ranging from ambiguous specifications, insufficient testing, hardware reliability, noise, transients, version mismatches, bugs in compilers and operating systems, bugs stemming from poorly implemented concurrency, bugs in hardware even (FPGAs) and so on.

Yes one can take steps to improve in all these areas but it is subject to the well known law of diminishing returns.

You stating he is an idiot is irrational.

But Musk is just one idiot, how did you count two?

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

You stating he is an idiot is irrational.

I have to apologize for not being on the web so that you can find out if I have any expertise but nevertheless I offer that I have been a gear head since the 60s and religious auto racer, builder, and promoter too and will state that not one of those automobiles will still be on the road after 400,000 miles as they all have about 100,000 moving parts compared to to maybe 300 on an EV.

One more thing (as I see an ask for more proof from the web coming), top end EVs have battery packs that last well over 400,000 miles but that is sort of irrelevant becasue there ere no EVs yet (as far as I know) that have been driven that distance.

My Jeep wrangler broke down about two years ago, odd symptoms, would no accelerate and when I hit the gas it would rev but only slightly.

After some effort I got it to a Jeep dealership in Scottsdale and they found that it was in "limp mode".

The problem was that even my local car repair guys (many years of expertise between them) told me they can't deal with it because to get at the full error codes and log requires expensive licenses for the diagnostic equipment.

So, neither I nor they stood a chance in trying to understand the problem, only the dealership because they have the tools for this.

Complexity is indeed ramping hugely year in year out, and when complexity increases faster than our ability to manage or comprehend or contain that complexity then risk goes up.