Stock declines signal a bear market; here’s what that means

[Allan]

Look for support at S&P at 3400 - 3500. Next support 3200. Don't try to buy the bottom but leg in near those levels.

I'll never think that I can guess the bottom, but a bear situation is usually reliable for future recovery.

I'd be leery of going Nasdaq in a rising rate environment as rising rates usually contract price to earning ratios which are much higher in the Nasdaq.

Agree - I don't trust techy stuff any more thanks to a Netflix burn. I'll stick with what's safe such as Canadian banks and utilities.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[dobieg]

I bought a little too.

Bought heavily into GS and NVDA yesterday. GS is now below book value which won't last.

If Fed gets aggressive and raises rates .75 instead of .50, it could actually be a positive for the market as it signals they are getting serious about fight inflation. Of course yesterday we were down 1,000 at one point on the rumor they were going to raise .75.

Target and WalMart looking attractive as does Amazon, Microsoft, BAC and Meta(P/E down to 13 which is ridiculous for this cash cow). Wish I had the balls to get into Tesla at these levels but too volitile for my blood. Delta might be a good play as these levels as they're seeing record bookings but getting dragged down by fuel costs and talks of recession.


Do not trade based on what I do. Do your own research.

 

[bave]

Bought heavily into GS and NVDA yesterday. GS is now below book value which won't last.

If Fed gets aggressive and raises rates .75 instead of .50, it could actually be a positive for the market as it signals they are getting serious about fight inflation. Of course yesterday we were down 1,000 at one point on the rumor they were going to raise .75.

Target and WalMart looking attractive as does Amazon, Microsoft, BAC and Meta(P/E down to 13 which is ridiculous for this cash cow). Wish I had the balls to get into Tesla at these levels but too volitile for my blood. Delta might be a good play as these levels as they're seeing record bookings but getting dragged down by fuel costs and talks of recession.

Meh. GS isn't a good play in the financials. They don't have the exposure to the lending curve and reserve benefit. Their M&A operations are going to tank and that isn't yet reflected in their book value, so that's why it looks reasonable from a statistics point of view if you don't understand the method of calculation. NVDA is a crap shoot of volatility. I am interested in NVDA and AMD but not at current valuations in this climate. Tech stocks could reasonably fall another 20% pretty easily.

I wouldn't touch META with someone else's money. It has the unique ability to be universally hated by every politician in the world and that will eventually come home to haunt them. At the same time they have been talking a whole lot about *large* declines in EPS due to expected large hikes in futures expenses. I just have a major issue at a personal level with FB and how they operate, IMO it is one of the worst things to ever happen to humanity.

 

[dobieg]

I think we have a bit more volatility ahead because stcks have not fully priced in slow growth. But I would suspect a bottom by the fourth quarter

Some issues that also may be weighing on the market is companies overbuying during the shortage and now having to liquidate. We saw this with Target and Walmart both getting crushed with oversupply. I expect that to be happening with many other companies. Now there is talk that companies also may have over employed workers and they will be laying off. We're seeing this in tech companies right now.

 

[vegas giants]

Some issues that also may be weighing on the market is companies overbuying during the shortage and now having to liquidate. We saw this with Target and Walmart both getting crushed with oversupply. I expect that to be happening with many other companies. Now there is talk that companies also may have over employed workers and they will be laying off. We're seeing this in tech companies right now.

I hear rumors of a possible permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of the year but those are just rumors. If true that would be perfect timing to kick off a recovery

 

[dobieg]

Meh. GS isn't a good play in the financials. They don't have the exposure to the lending curve and reserve benefit. Their M&A operations are going to tank and that isn't yet reflected in their book value, so that's why it looks reasonable from a statistics point of view if you don't understand the method of calculation. NVDA is a crap shoot of volatility. I am interested in NVDA and AMD but not at current valuations in this climate. Tech stocks could reasonably fall another 20% pretty easily.

I wouldn't touch META with someone else's money. It has the unique ability to be universally hated by every politician in the world and that will eventually come home to haunt them. At the same time they have been talking a whole lot about *large* declines in EPS due to expected large hikes in futures expenses. I just have a major issue at a personal level with FB and how they operate, IMO it is one of the worst things to ever happen to humanity.

Trust me, I detest FB but if they can make me money I'm buying.

Buying BAC and Wells Fargo for the lending curve. Buying GS because they always find a way and after falling from $420 to $283, they're attractive to me.

NVDA is the cream of the crop in chips and is a long term play. AMD looks attractive because of market share they keep taking away from Intel but I personally prefer NVDA. QCOM is also attractive.

 

[dobieg]

I hear rumors of a possible permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of the year but those are just rumors. If true that would be perfect timing to kick off a recovery

If that happens or inflation drops or China fully reopens we could see a violent move up. Of course I would expect that to come back down as Fed tapers and earnings contract.

 

[RealityNow]

Some stocks were overpriced, others not so much. There are some real bargains now. When you get to the point that stalwart stocks start breaking down, you're getting near a selling climax. Stocks like Apple and Alphabet (Google) held their own for a long time, but now they're faltering. So while the market can continue to grind lower for some months ahead, I think we're getting near the end of the major selling. Keep in mind I've been investing in stocks for half a century (fifty years this year, in fact), so this ain't my first rodeo. I'm used to this crap. It used to scare me, but now I get a hard-on for buying great businesses at cheap prices.

Nothing remains on top forever. there's always something 'innovative and new" that is created.
I don't care much for "stocks that base their revenue on "advertising income", becuase I try my best to "ignore as much advertising as I can". Apple to me sells over-priced products, not that they are not good products. I just don't see the need to buy an Apple product when I can find other products that perform for what I actually use it for. The only Apple product I ever owned was the original Music Player. Now, any smart phone will play music.
I like "hard commodity product makers", especially ones who "make core components' that are used by a variety of manufactuers, I'm not into "frenzy trading", I prefer to buy and hold.
I don't rely on stocks as general income, so I don't panic when the ticker goes up and down. I already know what my acceptable loss % is.

 

[dobieg]

If a person doesn't have a lot of experience trading, best thing to buy is SPY which tracks the S&P 500 stock market index. It's what Warren Buffet recommends.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

3 investing lessons Warren Buffett shared at the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway meeting

Warren Buffett shared some words of wisdom for new investors and day traders during the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting on Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Geoist]

Mortgage rates just went above 6%. If I were going to do something, I'd be doing it now.

We have to wait, everything is going through probate because her grandpa didn't dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

 

[highroller]

I hear rumors of a possible permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of the year but those are just rumors. If true that would be perfect timing to kick off a recovery

Where are you hearing those RUMORS?

 

[vegas giants]

Where are you hearing those RUMORS?

Where are you hearing those RUMORS?

It was one economist at Goldman Sachs. He could be completely wrong as even he said its just a rumor

 

[dobieg]

We have to wait, everything is going through probate because her grandpa didn't dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

You should still have a window with demand running strong but you might have to settle for a little less.


Good luck!

 

[Geoist]

You should still have a window with demand running strong but you might have to settle for a little less.


Good luck!

Thank you.

 

[highroller]

It was one economist at Goldman Sachs. He could be completely wrong as even he said its just a rumor

Bankers always have the inside scoop on war; they’re the ones that fund it

 

[gbg3]

EXACTLY!

Anyone can make money during a bull market.
But the biggest returns can be had by getting out and back in at the right time.

Personally, I am good at spotting the top (nailed it in Fall '07).
My problem is spotting the bottom.
I have trouble pulling the trigger to get back in.
Cost me in '09.
I waited WAY too long.

That ride back up can come so abruptly and happen so incredibly fast, that it's tough to spot those bottoms in time - before they get away from you.

 

[gbg3]

If Fed gets aggressive and raises rates .75 instead of .50, it could actually be a positive for the market as it signals they are getting serious about fight inflation.

Agreed. I think it's sure possible they might go .75 tomorrow. Since they made the error of clearly indicating it would be .5, it could give off an initial fear factor reaction of - they clearly don't know WTH they are doing or have any grasp on this. But I think that would quite quickly shift to - good, they are finally getting serious and beginning to do what they must do. I think it could be news breaks, market tanks, market gets back to about where it was before the news - all before the close.

 

[gbg3]

If a person doesn't have a lot of experience trading, best thing to buy is SPY which tracks the S&P 500 stock market index. It's what Warren Buffet recommends.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

3 investing lessons Warren Buffett shared at the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway meeting

Warren Buffett shared some words of wisdom for new investors and day traders during the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting on Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

I think Buffet recommends VOO over SPY. Same thing, lower fee. At least that was his preference several years ago.

 

[gbg3]

If a person doesn't have a lot of experience trading, best thing to buy is SPY which tracks the S&P 500 stock market index. It's what Warren Buffet recommends.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

3 investing lessons Warren Buffett shared at the 2021 Berkshire Hathaway meeting

Warren Buffett shared some words of wisdom for new investors and day traders during the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting on Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

That's my style of buying. I bought a bunch of VOO in recent years and, right now, I'm in the process of trying to scoop up VTI for a broader perspective than VOO. I'll hold both long term.

 

[reflechissez]

Full Bore Recession, avoidable, should be seeing a boom. Oops.

How so?

 

[reflechissez]

That ride back up can come so abruptly and happen so incredibly fast, that it's tough to spot those bottoms in time - before they get away from you.

It's not "tough;" it's impossible.

 

[Renae]

How so?

Start with no electing that moron Biden and his "I'm going to shut down the fossil fuel industry" agenda, that would have been a big start.

 

[Callen]

Start with no electing that moron Biden and his "I'm going to shut down the fossil fuel industry" agenda, that would have been a big start.

Clearly, you have no idea why the oil companies are choosing not to drill, not to expand production, but it suits your preferred narrative so that's where you will roost.

 

[reflechissez]

Start with no electing that moron Biden and his "I'm going to shut down the fossil fuel industry" agenda, that would have been a big start.

Is this post a result of your extensive research/knowledge about the economy or just some random, uninformed bleat?

 

[Renae]

Is this post a result of your extensive research/knowledge about the economy or just some random, uninformed bleat?

Common sense, but hey you keep on thinking it's Putin's fault and that dastardly Trump, we'll see how the voters feel in Nov.