Inflation Update: 'Unprecedented'

[Lord Tammerlain]

How can all these people *afford* to sit on the sidelines? That's the answer to the question, not the excuse as to the reason. If people are given a choice, they will generally choose not to work, especially at the unskilled and low skilled side of the curve. That's what is happening. Previously these people had to work to eat, not they get a check and don't have to pay rent in many states. Great deal, but I am sure that has nothing to do with it.



And yet the 9 in 10 of the top unemployment states are the bluest of blue states that have the most generous "safety nets".

A lot of people are likely working for Uber and other such delivery companies rather than going back to regular jobs at restaurants

 

[venice_ca]

I heard an extended report today on the Port of Los Angeles -- largest and busiest US port for Asian imports -- and the delays will be continuing.
Longshoremen are working 18-hour days, not enough truckers to move all the merchandise, cargo ships at sea waiting for space on the docks, ships held at the port cannot return in time to Asia to meet deadlines to pick up new shipments to US.

This article covers some of the same points that were in the broadcast: Record shattered: 65 container ships stuck waiting off California: Imports to Los Angeles in August fell 5.9% year on year amid heavy congestion

 

[Visbek]

GDP for 2020 was down 2.3% I believe, is projected to be up ~6 this year. Amazing that the zombie apocalypse hasn't hit the GDP numbers.

If ever there was an argument not to overstate the importance of GDP, then you just made it.

When did I say that? If you live in a state that has insane lockdowns that is gutting every small business in sight while lavishing government cheese on the labor force you are still balls deep in a disaster zone.

If you live in a state where the virus is spreading like wildfire because the government is fighting vaccine and mask mandates, you're also in a disaster zone.

If you live in a state where the government does the right thing, then things are getting back to normal. Schools are in-person, and kids are generally safe because of mask mandates. Employees are safer because more people are vaccinated.

If you look at GDP on a per-state basis, you certainly don't see states like CA or NY cratering.

A double vaccinated person can absolutely contract COVID....

Yes, I agreed -- but with the caveat that we don't yet know how long that protection lasts.

The risk of an antibody carrier infecting otherwise is extremely low.

It's definitely lower than an unvaccinated person -- but it's not zero. It's significant enough that when in a location with numerous people, whose vaccination status is unknown, vaccinated people should still wear masks.

If you don't get vaccinated and croak, I don't really care frankly.

Wow. Such compassion.

(And by that, I mean I do care about accidentally harming others, even those who make choices I disagree with.)

All the data is showing that the vast, vast majority of those who are being hospitalized for COVID are because they are unvaccinated. So if you are vaccinated, I am not sure why you should be locked down at this point.

...yes, but again! Barely more than half of Americans are vaccinated. That's a huge swath of workers who are justifiably reluctant to work shit jobs, for shit pay, with more risk than usual.

It has nothing to do with a sudden surge in demand because of the highest household savings rate in history courtesy of free cheese?

Correct. Not a damned thing.

Savings rates are high because people are spending less on restaurants, bars, movies and travel.

What macroeconomic condition is usually caused by high savings rates and less spending? DEFLATION, not inflation. (See Japan as an example.)

And, of course, if we hadn't sent out stimulus checks and extended UI, then the economy would be completely ****ed. Less demand would mean less price increases -- but you'd have millions evicted, millions more out of work, states facing tax revenue drops and thus forced to cut spending (which adds to the downturn), more federal borrowing due to less revenue... I.e. it's much, much better for used cars to cost more, than to send the entire economy down the tubes.

Production is down because of largely artificial labor shortages and demand is up because of helicopter money.

sigh

The labor shortages aren't "artificial." Again, the evidence is clear that almost all of it is because people don't want to get sick and die.

Some of the added demand is due to stimulus -- but most of it isn't. A lot of the people buying laptops and used cars didn't even get any UI or stimulus checks.

And since you're so fond of anecdotes: The people I know who got laid off in the pandemic didn't use the UI and stimulus to buy pot and Playstations. They were paying their bills -- barely.

The chip shortage is more complex than this, it has to due with everyone from demand, to droughts, to delays in fab-labs etc.

...almost all of which I covered.

You don't know what inflation is doing....

I have a pretty good idea. Better than a lot of people in this thread for sure.

I believe everyone in history has claimed to have inflation under control before it blows up.

lol... If I had a dime for every inflation hawk who was wrong between 2007 and the present day, I'd be richer than Jeff Bezos.

 

[trouble13]

These companies are not standing still and suffering margin degradation. As I pointed out in my article on GT, they are raising prices aggressively in the face of rising costs. GT raised prices for their tires 5% in December and then 8% in April, June and September. Graphic Packaging (GPK), which I wrote up in July, is also raising prices for linerboard (used in milk cartons etc.) to offset their increased costs. It's hard to think of two more basic goods used by more people than tires and milk cartons.

I wrote a longer piece about inflation at the end of last month, which showed price increases for food and energy. In it, I explained why I thought prices on those items were elevated and likely to stay so. I also showed a graph on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), which is a main tool the Fed uses to measure inflation. We will have to see how that acts at the end of this month. The price increases these industrial executives discussed, however, indicate the PCE is unlikely to come down anytime soon.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455984-inflation-update-unprecedented

Labor and materials....forcing prices up. Going to be interesting to see how the FED reacts on this runaway train. Raising interest rates may be the necessary ingredient to cool things off.

Air conditioning equipment has gone up about 20‰ across the board. It's brutal handing people quotes right now.

 

[itstony]

I heard an extended report today on the Port of Los Angeles -- largest and busiest US port for Asian imports -- and the delays will be continuing.
Longshoremen are working 18-hour days, not enough truckers to move all the merchandise, cargo ships at sea waiting for space on the docks, ships held at the port cannot return in time to Asia to meet deadlines to pick up new shipments to US.

This article covers some of the same points that were in the broadcast: Record shattered: 65 container ships stuck waiting off California: Imports to Los Angeles in August fell 5.9% year on year amid heavy congestion

One other related issue that no one really thinks about, there's a container shortage as well. Not enough truckers to get empties back to the port and the longshoremen are spending time unloading ships and not loading empties which has created a massive container shortage in China. New containers have over doubled in cost as a result. It all adds up.

 

[itstony]

I have to agree that staffing is one of the largest issues causing inflation, from top to bottom of the supply chain.

This is the reason I decided to retire a couple years early this summer, I was tired of having to beg people to come to work, not worth the aggravation.

 

[bave]

If ever there was an argument not to overstate the importance of GDP, then you just made it.

It is sorta the baseline standard for measuring the stability and performance of an economy.

If you live in a state where the virus is spreading like wildfire because the government is fighting vaccine and mask mandates, you're also in a disaster zone.

Yes and no. I live in one of those states, it hasn't impacted me or my businesses materially. I am vaccinated, most of the people I know are vaccinated, and those that don't can make that choice as they see fit. They aren't closing schools, or businesses, or mandating masks. They are literally just rolling that "Get vaccinated, it's a good idea, but you don't have to".

If you live in a state where the government does the right thing, then things are getting back to normal. Schools are in-person, and kids are generally safe because of mask mandates. Employees are safer because more people are vaccinated.

The "right thing" is the debatable point here. I don't think NY, NJ, and CA are examples of doing the right thing at all.

If you look at GDP on a per-state basis, you certainly don't see states like CA or NY cratering.

Their unemployment rates are materially underperforming to say the least.

Yes, I agreed -- but with the caveat that we don't yet know how long that protection lasts.

Fair enough, and when that shows signs of waning I will look to get a booster. No probs.

It's definitely lower than an unvaccinated person -- but it's not zero. It's significant enough that when in a location with numerous people, whose vaccination status is unknown, vaccinated people should still wear masks.

I don't believe anyone has a definitive answer on that. I am also not going to change my life around out of concern for someone else who refuses to do basic things like get the vaccine. I am not going to be more concerned for a stranger's safety than they are.

Wow. Such compassion.

It's about choices. I am much more on the true libertarian side of the curve. If someone wants to do heroin, go ahead, just don't go to a hospital or break a law while involved in drugs. Same way if you want to eat/drink yourself to death, go ahead, just don't ask my tax dollars to save you. Same is also true for people who are going to take risks with COVID.

(And by that, I mean I do care about accidentally harming others, even those who make choices I disagree with.)

I am not looking to put other people in harms way, the difference in our line of thinking is that I don't think I am responsible in the (extreme) case that I somehow transmit a breakthrough infection to someone else who hasn't been vaccinated. I put that responsibility on the person who chose not to get vaccinated.

 

[bave]

And, of course, if we hadn't sent out stimulus checks and extended UI, then the economy would be completely ****ed. Less demand would mean less price increases -- but you'd have millions evicted, millions more out of work, states facing tax revenue drops and thus forced to cut spending (which adds to the downturn), more federal borrowing due to less revenue... I.e. it's much, much better for used cars to cost more, than to send the entire economy down the tubes.

The problem with this theory is that it leads to the idea that free money is the solution to all economic problems. We are throwing unnecessary amounts of helicopter money into the pockets of people, it is an excess of disposable income and that is what you are seeing manifest. I am not suggesting we shouldn't have had UI for these people, what I am suggesting is that it should no longer be an acceptable reason to not seek employment at this point. If you choose not to get a job at this point, that's on you, it isn't societies job to pay your bills because you are scared of a small risk (if you are vaccinated).

sigh

The labor shortages aren't "artificial." Again, the evidence is clear that almost all of it is because people don't want to get sick and die.

And the evidence is clear that if you get the vaccine that risk is incredibly small. It is akin to saying people are afraid to go to work because of getting killed in a car accident. It could happen, but it isn't a valid excuse to stop life. The only reason it works in this case is because the government is enabling it.

Some of the added demand is due to stimulus -- but most of it isn't. A lot of the people buying laptops and used cars didn't even get any UI or stimulus checks.

And since you're so fond of anecdotes: The people I know who got laid off in the pandemic didn't use the UI and stimulus to buy pot and Playstations. They were paying their bills -- barely.

Out of curiosity, what were these people making? With the bonus UI the breakeven math I saw was that most states was around $22/hr. So a person making $21/hr got a raise to stay home in many states. If you were making less than that, or even a bit more, you should have zero excuse to struggle with bills and rent, yet somehow I keep being told millions of people can't pay rent.

lol... If I had a dime for every inflation hawk who was wrong between 2007 and the present day, I'd be richer than Jeff Bezos.

Not me. You didn't see me chiming in about inflation then because we never saw numbers printing like this in an amazing trifecta of poor monetary and fiscal policy. I don't think *anyone* can reasonably say which way this is going. It is unchartered waters.

 

[Jay59]

The rent wasn't free, it was deferred. And the evictions won't offset the food and rental cost increases caused by the supply chain disruption and the booming housing market. The US is heading for an existential crisis for low-income earners.

It's rent free if there is no intention or ability to pay it.

It's like a billionaire tipping an Uber driver a quarter instead of a dime.

More like tipping $50 for a $30 ride.

Do you actually tip Uber drivers a dime?

The data is clear: Stimulus policies are not discouraging workers. Numerous surveys have shown that the main reason people are sitting on the sidelines is because... wait for it... we're still in a pandemic. Not enough people are vaccinated, so there is still a huge risk for many workers, especially in retail and hospitality sectors.

We aren't in the middle of a pandemic, rather the lingering phases.

Polls are not a suitable basis for this sort of question. Do you have any real data?

The states which dropped the expanded unemployment insurance didn't have a huge rush back to work. In fact, cutting those benefits reduced consumer spending in those states; how do you think that impacts a state's economy?

Not a huge rush but also not nothing.

Child care is also a serious issue. Kids were stuck at home for a year, and even now will periodically get sent home (at least, in states that don't allow mask mandates...). For many families, that meant at least one person either had to work from home, or not work, to keep an eye on the kids.

You should have led with this. Needing a parent home because child care was closed has a bigger impact on the slow return to employment than the pandemic.

And, of course, the labor shortage isn't just in "Blue States," it isn't even just in the US -- there is a global labor shortage, caused by the pandemic.

Even if this is granted

This does not follow.

It's happening regardless of any safety net programs, or lack thereof.

You are making grand statements and showing little or no factual basis.

Do you have anything solid, or is this all bluster and air?

 

[nvflash]

We've left the Fed to fire the only bullet in the gun, over and over.

There is likely a economic term for the trap we are in, when we look at the national debt, and the budget deficits we are running, it becomes hard for the Fed to raise rates any amount that might matter to rein in inflation. As always, inflation is not the enemy, deflation is, because our debts both public and personal do not deflate.

What happens to interest rates when we fall into deflation, what happens to the budget deficit, what happens when we get our credit downgraded?

Growth becomes the only weapon we have to fend off deflation and a downward deflationary spiral.

The Fed will likely make a mainly superficial move to raise rates in 2022/23, but mostly we'll just be stuck in this trap we are in where the Fed can't really stop buying US bonds, and certainly can't start selling them at any relevant amount. Doing so would raise the interest rate on the federal short-term debt, taking hundreds of billions from the treasury.

If the treasury has to pay hundreds of billions more in interests, this increases the need to borrow, because everyone knows that we won't cut spending. Thus we issue new debt, but the Fed is not buying, so the reverse auction demands higher rates because they don't have a buyer of last resort.

Then what happens to interest rates?

I think the Fed will just downplay inflation, and push superficial rate hikes down the road, while the federal government does everything it can to downplay inflation numbers. Our debt and deficit are just too great, we are stuck in an upward inflationary trap that I just don't see anyway out of, we just have to try and manage the inflation so that it doesn't become hyper-inflation.

 

[Visbek]

How can all these people *afford* to sit on the sidelines?

"All these people?"

The unemployment rate is down to 5%. Normally, that's full employment.

LFPR is not back to pre-pandemic levels -- but it's not awful either. It's only down by 1.7%.

Employers were screaming about labor shortages for years before the pandemic.

Why has the unemployment fallen in nations with more generous benefits than the US, like Germany, France, UK, or Sweden?

Right off the bat, it seems like the claims that "government aid is keeping people from working!" has some serious issues.

If people are given a choice, they will generally choose not to work, especially at the unskilled and low skilled side of the curve. That's what is happening.

Except... it isn't, as the data so clearly shows. Just a few days ago, we saw yet again how the states that cut UI early didn't see a big hiring boom. Leisure and hospitality jobs in particular saw a steep decline in the states that cut benefits early.

Amid COVID surge, states that cut benefits still see no hiring boost

The August slowdown in U.S. job creation hit harder in states that pulled the plug early on enhanced federal unemployment benefits, places where an intense summertime surge of coronavirus cases may have held back the hoped-for job growth.

www.reuters.com

States that cut their UI and other benefits first are still experiencing worker shortages. "Back to work" bonuses aren't working either.

Previously these people had to work to eat, not they get a check and don't have to pay rent in many states. Great deal, but I am sure that has nothing to do with it.

One problem with that theory is that a lot of people never actually got those rent relief checks. Congress allocated over $45 billion to rent relief, and only $5 billion got spent. Part of that is states not executing, but most of it is people not asking for rent relief. Why would anyone not want free money?

Another is that forbearance is not the same thing as forgiveness. E.g. if you had a mortgage, last year you could pause your payments. However, that was only was a delay in payment, and the unpaid months got tacked onto the end of your mortgage.

SNAP work requirements were temporarily removed. However, that's around $250 for a family of four, or $62/person. Does that sound like luxurious dining to you? 'Cause that sounds more like ramen and bananas to me.

How much aid do you think people are getting, anyway? Do you really think that people have survived the last 4 months on a single $1400 stimulus check and food stamps?

Did you not know that fewer people collected TANF in 2020 than 2019? (That number was barely over 2 million, btw.)

And yet the 9 in 10 of the top unemployment states are the bluest of blue states that have the most generous "safety nets".

Yes, because Nevada, Connecticut and Alaska are famed for their generous safety nets... lol

So, let's see. New York State peaked at 16% in April of 2020, and is now down to 7.4%. That's only 1% above NY's average of 1976 through 2019. The most dramatic drop was right when stimulus payments were at their most -- 14.7% in July 2020, dropping to 8.7% in just 3 months. That was before the UI bonus dropped from $600 to $300 (that ended on 9/6) and any vaccines were available. How is any of this possible, "If people are given a choice, they will generally choose not to work"?

 

[Visbek]

We aren't in the middle of a pandemic, rather the lingering phases.

The current wave is significantly worse than last summer:

Polls are not a suitable basis for this sort of question.

Translation: "Polls that do not support my position are not suitable." (I.e. yes, a poll that directly asks people why they aren't working is... wait for it... a good way to find out why people aren't working.)

Anyway, see above post.

Not a huge rush but also not nothing.

No, dude, it's nothing. The states that cut UI early are actually seeing slightly less hiring than those which kept it. See above.

You should have led with this. Needing a parent home because child care was closed has a bigger impact on the slow return to employment than the pandemic.

What "slow return?" Unemployment dropped from 16% to 5%. That's incredibly fast.

Even if this is granted, This does not follow.

Yes, it does. E.g. Nations with more generous safety nets than the US are seeing unemployment drop. That shouldn't happen, if safety nets discourage work.

You are making grand statements and showing little or no factual basis.

No, you're just not interested in the facts. Later.

 

[Visbek]

It is sorta the baseline standard for measuring the stability and performance of an economy.

...and it is widely criticized for its inadequacy at even that task.

Yes and no.

Or, just "yes." TN, WV, AK, SC, KY, WY, NC, ID... all getting slammed right now. It's so bad that hospitals in Idaho are triaging, even after sending tons of patients to WA for treatment.

The "right thing" is the debatable point here. I don't think NY, NJ, and CA are examples of doing the right thing at all.

Well, maybe you should.

They're all close to or above 60% vaccinated. On a per-capita basis, all three are near the bottom of new cases and new deaths. Businesses, parks, theaters are all reopening. Heck, Newsom beat the snot out of Elder during the recall, in large part based on progress with COVID.

Their unemployment rates are materially underperforming to say the least.

lol... I give you facts, I get back slanted opinion.

I don't believe anyone has a definitive answer on that. I am also not going to change my life around out of concern for someone else who refuses to do basic things like get the vaccine. I am not going to be more concerned for a stranger's safety than they are.

Again, great to see that you are overflowing with compassion for your fellow human beings.

I am much more on the true libertarian side of the curve.

What a shock

If someone wants to do heroin, go ahead, just don't go to a hospital or break a law while involved in drugs.

...or, we can actually help those people, and in doing so dramatically reduce the harm they are doing to innocent people in their lives. What a concept.

I am not looking to put other people in harms way, the difference in our line of thinking is that I don't think I am responsible in the (extreme) case that I somehow transmit a breakthrough infection to someone else who hasn't been vaccinated. I put that responsibility on the person who chose not to get vaccinated.

You may not intend to harm others, but you are potentially harming others.

A pandemic is the ultimate example of how our actions affect other people. At a bare minimum, the economy isn't going to get back on an even keel just because you already got vaccinated. That's self-centered almost to the point of insanity.

 

[bave]

Or, just "yes." TN, WV, AK, SC, KY, WY, NC, ID... all getting slammed right now. It's so bad that hospitals in Idaho are triaging, even after sending tons of patients to WA for treatment.

Again, those people are those who chose not to get vaccinated. You can't fix that frankly. The vaccine has been widely available, for free, for over six months. If you don't have it, you don't want it. If you don't have it, the state really can't protect you from the world and we can't keep the world shut down while Darwin does his good work.

Well, maybe you should.

They're all close to or above 60% vaccinated. On a per-capita basis, all three are near the bottom of new cases and new deaths. Businesses, parks, theaters are all reopening. Heck, Newsom beat the snot out of Elder during the recall, in large part based on progress with COVID.

Or maybe Newsom won California because he is in a state that is 2:1 registered Democrats, that might have something to do with it.

Again, great to see that you are overflowing with compassion for your fellow human beings.

...or, we can actually help those people, and in doing so dramatically reduce the harm they are doing to innocent people in their lives. What a concept.

You can't help someone who doesn't want to be helped. I am not going to spend my life living in fear because of someone else's actions. Don't get a vaccine, that's your choice, but don't tell me I have to wear a mask for years just because some people don't want to get a vaccine.\

Dramatically reduce? Yea, no evidence to support that.

You may not intend to harm others, but you are potentially harming others.

No, they are harming themselves. If someone steps off a curb expecting the world to accomodate them and I hit them, that's not my fault. That's an idiot taking unnecessary risk getting tagged in life. Tough shit.

A pandemic is the ultimate example of how our actions affect other people. At a bare minimum, the economy isn't going to get back on an even keel just because you already got vaccinated. That's self-centered almost to the point of insanity.

And what's the plan? Wait until we get 80% vaccinated nationally? What are you going to do? Round these people up and put them in camps? Vaccination numbers are largely stuck where they are at this point.

 

[nvflash]

Centralized government planning of the economy has it's pitfalls, the government can't force people to get the vaccine, even if it is " for their own good".

Biden and the Congress have done what they could, they could have done a few things here or there better, but politics is the art of the possible. It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback or score cheap political points for your team by taking shots at Trump/Biden/Congresspersons that hold them to impossible standards.

I voted for Trump twice, and I don't mind saying he was off message as the pandemic raged, likely leading to unnecessary loss of life. Biden has done a better job of being on message, but he did have the benefit of the vaccine being ready when he took office, it becomes impossible to know if Biden or anyone else but Trump was President before we had a vaccine how many lives would have been lost or saved.

We, being civilized western style "free" democracies do the best we can, anyone can argue that we could have done better after the fact, but that really doesn't move us forward in any meaningful way. Biden and this Congress now face many challenges and I hope they can move use forward in meaningful positive ways, even tho I did not vote for them.

Stop wishing ill on your nation to score political points.

 

[Jay59]

The current wave is significantly worse than last summer:

It's not close. The summer of 2020 was much worse. Were you implying that August is not summer?

View attachment 67354887

Your own chart stabs you in the back. First, it shows that this push is significantly lower than earlier this year and it also shows that the curve has topped. Bravo.

Try something relevant, like new hospitalization rates or recovery/mortality ratios.

Translation: "Polls that do not support my position are not suitable." (I.e. yes, a poll that directly asks people why they aren't working is... wait for it... a good way to find out why people aren't working.)

What are you supposedly translating? That's a statement of your SOP not a reply to a point.

Polls are too subjective so they are not suitable for this sort of economic analysis.

Anyway, see above post.

No, dude, it's nothing. The states that cut UI early are actually seeing slightly less hiring than those which kept it. See above.

What "slow return?" Unemployment dropped from 16% to 5%. That's incredibly fast.

Since you clearly were not planning to give credit where due, I'll thank President Trump for you.

Yes, it does. E.g. Nations with more generous safety nets than the US are seeing unemployment drop. That shouldn't happen, if safety nets discourage work.

Try reading what was posted rather than quoting the next talking point. it will be less embarrassing in the long run.

No, you're just not interested in the facts. Later.

How would you know? The only facts you brought disprove your own talking points.

Next time try reading before replying.

 

[Cynical]

These companies are not standing still and suffering margin degradation. As I pointed out in my article on GT, they are raising prices aggressively in the face of rising costs. GT raised prices for their tires 5% in December and then 8% in April, June and September. Graphic Packaging (GPK), which I wrote up in July, is also raising prices for linerboard (used in milk cartons etc.) to offset their increased costs. It's hard to think of two more basic goods used by more people than tires and milk cartons.

I wrote a longer piece about inflation at the end of last month, which showed price increases for food and energy. In it, I explained why I thought prices on those items were elevated and likely to stay so. I also showed a graph on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), which is a main tool the Fed uses to measure inflation. We will have to see how that acts at the end of this month. The price increases these industrial executives discussed, however, indicate the PCE is unlikely to come down anytime soon.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455984-inflation-update-unprecedented

Labor and materials....forcing prices up. Going to be interesting to see how the FED reacts on this runaway train. Raising interest rates may be the necessary ingredient to cool things off.

Honestly I really wasn't noticing it at first other than gas prices but during my last few trips to the grocery store...ouch!

 

[holbritter]

Who?


HOLY SHIT NOOOOOO!!!!

Back in the real world, inflation is slightly getting back to normal.


It's still all transient price increases. Most of it is still in a few tiny areas that are dealing with persistent shortages, such as used cars and some electronics.

Meanwhile, the previous bugaboo -- lumber -- has largely returned to earth. After peaking at $1600 in May, it's now down to $600. And yet, no one is screaming bloody murder about deflation. I wonder why?

The Fed isn't going to do anything yet, because the Fed doesn't need to do anything yet.

just a side note - it's still in outer space where I am.

 

[ambinonapronon]

A lot of people are likely working for Uber and other such delivery companies rather than going back to regular jobs at restaurants

Regular jobs at restautants.

 

[bluesmoke]

Lol, wut?

Do you just make this stuff up without expecting anyone to call you on it?

No one is saying CPI is going to be 1.6 to 2.8 for 21. No one. Hell, no one is saying 2% for '22 either.

Jesus man.

Here is the WHITE HOUSE lowballing the estimate.

The White House projects that inflation and economic growth will rise this year. (Published 2021)

The Biden administration revised its earlier forecasts to match the continued stimulus-fueled recovery from the recession.

www.nytimes.com

"The administration also revised up its forecasts for the Consumer Price Index inflation rate, which officials now estimate will hit 4.8 percent for the year. That is more than double the administration’s initial forecast of 2.1 percent for the year."

“…officials indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after saying in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.”

‘ Though the Fed raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement stood by its position that inflation pressures are “transitory.” ’

(see 5th and 6th paras):
The Fed moves up its timeline for rate hikes as inflation rises (cnbc.com)

So, the Fed changed it’s expected rate hikes from 2024 to 2023, one single yr, and added 1%, a single %, to the previously projected 2.4% inflation, while noting such pressure is “transitory”, and you go Rumpelstiltskin on me, invoking the name of Jesus as if you’re “calling me out” on my numbers. Dude, the numbers are hardly diff and doesn’t change the point that while there may be industry segments that will take hits, overall inflation is nothing "unprecedented" and ricing prices are not a “runaway train” as says the OP. The FED isn't going to raise rates by any significant amount that the OP can show. The Fed doesn't go by WH figures, as you show them, they go by what they do because they are the ones that make these decisions and take according action, not the WH. You can’t refute any of the points I made. Moving up rate hikes by 1 yr and adding 1% to projected inflation is not so earth shattering a stat diff as you pretend it to be. Those are the Fed figures, the ones that count, not the WH figures.

 

[Visbek]

Again, those people are those who chose not to get vaccinated. You can't fix that frankly.

We can, via mandates. And yes, we mandate safety requirements all the time.

Or maybe Newsom won California because he is in a state that is 2:1 registered Democrats, that might have something to do with it.

lol... Nice try, but no. The fact is that these states are doing much better with COVID right now, and Newsom didn't pay a penalty for pushing things like mask mandates or supporting vaccine mandates. In fact, he got seriously dinged for not following his own restrictions closely enough. Meanwhile, DeSantis is apparently paying a bit of a political price for his deadly policies.

You can't help someone who doesn't want to be helped.

Of course we can. We do it all the time.

We have seat belt laws, which faced stiff resistance at first, and are now used almost universally. We force people into drug treatment programs. We have a process by which someone who may be mentally incompetent can be evaluated, and treated against their will (to whatever degree that concept applies to someone who is not competent). Suicide is illegal. We mandate vaccines. We mandate education, even though many kids don't like school, and at least some parents would opt out of education if they could. We mandate Phys Ed in schools.

The list goes on and on and on.

I am not going to spend my life living in fear because of someone else's actions.

lol... Well, it sure sounds like you are living in fear of government mandates to wear a mask.

You don't have to "live in fear" to simply avoid spreading a lethal disease to other people. You just have to be considerate. I guess that's just a bridge too far for you, huh?

Dramatically reduce? Yea, no evidence to support that.

Oh, good grief. There's tons of evidence. Don't get me started.

No, they are harming themselves. If someone steps off a curb expecting the world to accomodate them and I hit them, that's not my fault.

sigh... Yet again, this is a disease, not a self-help course. You can still spread the disease, and you know that not everyone is vaccinated; you should also know that not everyone can get vaccinated.

And what's the plan? Wait until we get 80% vaccinated nationally?

Probably more like 90%. Plus, eventually we'll have antivirals that will dramatically reduce hospitalization and death rates.

Some habits -- such as frequent hand-washing and properly covering a sneeze, staying home if you feel sick, wearing a mask if you feel sick and must go out -- should be permanent.

Few impositions are really required before we hit that mark. Mask mandates, and vaccine requirements for restaurants or clubs etc, are sufficient. NY is a pretty good guide for this.

Vaccination numbers are largely stuck where they are at this point.

No, actually, they aren't. Over 1 million Americans have gotten at least their first vaccination shot in the 9 days since this thread started. The rate of new vaccinations has been roughly the same since May or June.

Although vaccination is far too slow, we are nowhere near maxed out.

 

[Visbek]

It's not close. The summer of 2020 was much worse.

No, it wasn't. Last winter, not summer, was worse. Why can't you read a chart properly? Lemme help you out.

 

[Jay59]

No, it wasn't. Last winter, not summer, was worse. Why can't you read a chart properly? Lemme help you out.

View attachment 67356000

Last summer, sufficient testing supplies for screening were not yet available, so I'll allow half a point. Summer 2020 was much worse for hospitalizations and deaths.

It's worth noting that the current trend is clearly down.