California must be cooking the numbers like Florida

[Rickeroo]

California must be 'cooking the numbers' too.

Visit the source to be able to hover over each day. Aug 2nd is 8790 cases, from a baseline of 1000 cases a day in June. Roughly speaking, people that got Covid past that date haven't died yet, and therefore won't be reflected in the death count. We're only looking at up to August 2nd.



Here's the death count, which visually goes up to August 14th:



Deaths have been flat for some time in California, The high point of 66 was set 6 weeks ago, highlighted for scale.

Can someone explain to me how cases can increase 5 fold, we wait the 2 weeks, and deaths are flat?

This is Delta. It hits the young harder and faster. There's 1,000 times more 'particles in the nose'. People are stacking up in the ER.

I can only conclude, since I trust the media that Delta is the worst ever, that California is cooking the books and under-counting deaths.

Why aren't California's daily deaths up around 300?

 

[roguenuke]

California must be 'cooking the numbers' too.

Visit the source to be able to hover over each day. Aug 2nd is 8790 cases, from a baseline of 1000 cases a day in June. Roughly speaking, people that got Covid past that date haven't died yet, and therefore won't be reflected in the death count. We're only looking at up to August 2nd.

View attachment 67347925

Here's the death count, which visually goes up to August 14th:

View attachment 67347926

Deaths have been flat for some time in California, The high point of 66 was set 6 weeks ago, highlighted for scale.

Can someone explain to me how cases can increase 5 fold, we wait the 2 weeks, and deaths are flat?

This is Delta. It hits the young harder and faster. There's 1,000 times more 'particles in the nose'. People are stacking up in the ER.

I can only conclude, since I trust the media that Delta is the worst ever, that California is cooking the books and under-counting deaths.

Why aren't California's daily deaths up around 300?

Your conclusions are based on your assumptions only. And those assumptions appear to have little actual basis in what all is needed to evaluate such a situation.

You would have to compare other data. How many of their cases (California) is unvaccinated vs vaccinated? How good is the healthcare systems in CA compared to FL? CA has a higher percentage vaccinated than FL. CA also has encouraged rather than banned in school mask mandates. CA covid cases per day are half that of FL, so likely makes it easier for hospitals to keep up with, provide better care for.

California doing much better with Delta variant than Florida, Texas. Here's why

California's coronavirus case rate remains significantly less than Florida and Texas: two common points of comparison given their population size and different pandemic responses.

www.latimes.com

Florida has about 131 deaths/20k cases. California is seeing about 30 deaths/11k cases. That really isn't that huge of a difference in deaths as a ratio of cases there. There is a difference there, yes, but it is due to many factors that you fail to account for.

 

[roguenuke]

For a little more info on this:

California doing much better with Delta variant than Florida, Texas. Here's why

California's coronavirus case rate remains significantly less than Florida and Texas: two common points of comparison given their population size and different pandemic responses.

www.latimes.com

California is reporting 141.1 new coronavirus cases for every 100,000 residents over the last seven days — a rate half that of Texas, 297.8; and less than one-fourth that of Florida’s rate of 653.8, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. California’s rate is also less than the national average of 232.1.

So at 1/4th the rate of infections, they are showing also about 1/4 the deaths. How is that not right in line with what we see?

 

[bluesmoke]

So, the OP is making two claims, that both CA and FL are "cooking the numbers"?

Anyway, all these numbers will get scrutinized and may be adjusted based on such as excess death numbers when the CDC comes up with final figures for the country and by state, etc. Can't even guesstimate excess death numbers now by state because reporting requirements vary and may lag by quite a bit as to when the death info is available.

 

[Rickeroo]

For a little more info on this:

California doing much better with Delta variant than Florida, Texas. Here's why

California's coronavirus case rate remains significantly less than Florida and Texas: two common points of comparison given their population size and different pandemic responses.

www.latimes.com

So at 1/4th the rate of infections, they are showing also about 1/4 the deaths. How is that not right in line with what we see?

My point was that CA's cases when up by 500%, and 2 weeks after that rise, we aren't seeing a commensurate rise in deaths. I mean, they aren't even double or even just 50% more.

Deaths should be 300 a day in CA based on case count.

Of course, the big assumption is that a Delta case is just as deadly as previous variants.

 

[roguenuke]

My point was that CA's cases when up by 500%, and 2 weeks after that rise, we aren't seeing a commensurate rise in deaths. I mean, they aren't even double or even just 50% more.

Deaths should be 300 a day in CA based on case count.

Of course, the big assumption is that a Delta case is just as deadly as previous variants.

No, it shouldn't be, automatically. It depends on other information. What percentage of those cases are vaccinated vs unvaccinated? How many are being hospitalized? Which ones are Delta vs other strains? The hospitalization rate is down in California too, despite cases being up. That can indicate that CA is seeing maybe more people who have antibodies or are vaccinated testing positive, but not being hospitalized.

 

[Grand Mal]

My point was that CA's cases when up by 500%, and 2 weeks after that rise, we aren't seeing a commensurate rise in deaths. I mean, they aren't even double or even just 50% more.

Deaths should be 300 a day in CA based on case count.

Of course, the big assumption is that a Delta case is just as deadly as previous variants.

Sometimes the case count increases because testing has increased. And maybe pre-Delta there were more asymptomatic cases or barely symptomatic cases that never got counted.